【推荐3】Directions: After reading the passages below, fill in the blanks to make the passages coherent and grammatically correct. For the blanks with a given word, fill in each blank with the proper form of the given word; for the other blanks, use one word that best fits each other.
Book of the Week: Tomorrow’s People by Paul Morland
If you haven’t “been paying attention”, the message of this book is “going to come as a shock”, said David Aaronovitch in The Times. 1 argues that the “big demographic problem” of the future isn’t 2 there will be “too many people” on the planet, but that there will soon be “too few”. The world’s population is growing now, and in this “pithy and well-structured book”, Paul Morland, a lecturer at Birkbeck College in London, predicts it will go on doing so for a while yet, 3 (peak) at around 11 billion later this century. But that trend, he argues, is deceptive, because it depends on rapid growth in a few places, 4 sub-Saharan Africa. Meanwhile, across much of the rest of the planet, fertility rates 5 (fall) so fast that those dying are not being replaced. “Most of the West reproduces below or well below replacement rate, 6 does China.” Morland’s prediction is that the world’s population will fall significantly, with a profound effect on “social dynamics”.
7 the heart of Morland’s analysis is a process known as the “demographic transition”, said Sarah Harper in Literary Review. This holds that as societies develop economically, life expectancy increases-leading to a population surge. But then, as such societies become 8 (prosperous), women start having fewer children and their populations age and decline. The demographic transition is particularly advanced in Japan, a country with 79,000 centenarians, said Colin Freeman in The Daily Telegraph. Italy, Bulgaria and Russia are also shrinking fast. By contrast, Nigeria’s population 9 (expect) to double to 400 million by 2050. Tomorrow’s People is a well-argued work that provides a “concise chronicle of our global breeding habits”, and which is “illuminating on 10 the ebbs and flows(消长) of population can influence history”.