1 . When it came to imaging the future, Arthur C. Clarke stubbornly refused to take credit for any predictions. The Internet, 3-D printers, email: he may have described them all long before they existed. As a science fiction writer, he came up with the idea of a “personal transceiver” that is small enough to be carried about, able to contact with anyone in the world and perform global positioning, making getting lost a thing of the past. Elsewhere, he predicted everything from online banking to reusable spacecraft. His best remembered fictional work of all is 2001: A Space Odyssey. It also happened to forecast the iPad, computer software that is able to read lips, and space stations.

Interestingly, his vision of the future has barely aged. For example, life in Sri Lanka inspired his 1979 novel, featuring a “space elevator”, a planet-to-space transportation system that would do away with the need for rocket travel. Those human settlements on Mars or Venus are decidedly behind schedule(we humans were expected to have set foot on both by 1980), and we’re still looking for the key that should have fully unlocked the languages of whales and dolphins by 1970.

It’s a way of thinking that was likely fuelled by his inability to be anything other than utterly absorbed in all that interested him. At the very start of his career, he shared a flat on London’s Gray’s Inn Road with fellow science fiction writers who nicknamed him “Ego” because of his talent for turning out (关掉) distraction. Once he’d become a big enough name to be interviewed, he’d send journalists home loaded with research papers.

He once said, “Trying to predict the future is a discouraging and risky occupation.” If a prediction sounds at all reasonable, technological progress is sure to leave it seeming “ridiculously conservative”. But if, by a miracle, a person were to be able to describe the future exactly as it will unfold, “His predictions will sound so absurd and far-fetched that everybody would laugh him to scorn (轻蔑).”