1 . Perhaps you know northern Americans still maintain the habit of celebrating Groundhog Day when a large groundhog (土拨鼠) checks to see its shadow on February 2 and helps to predict when winter will end. But have you ever heard about how a mountain town in North Carolina uses a caterpillar (毛毛虫) known as the Woolly Worm to make similar predictions?

According to the folklore (民间传说), the amount of black on the woolly worm in autumn predicts the severity of the upcoming winter. The longer the woolly worm’s black bands (带) are, the longer, colder, snowier, and more severe the winter will be. Similarly, a wider middle brown band is a sign of a milder upcoming winter. The position of the longest dark bands supposedly indicates which part of winter will be coldest or hardest. If the head end of the caterpillar is dark, the beginning of winter will be severe. If the tail end is dark, the end of winter will be cold. In addition, the caterpillar has 13 segments (昆虫的节/段) to its body, which traditional forecasters say correspond to the 13 weeks of winter.

Scientific studies on worm forecasting are rare. American Museum of Natural History entomologist Howard Curran conducted a small trial in 1948. Having heard about the caterpillar folklore, Curran headed to Bear Mountain State Park to collect caterpillars each fall for eight years. He found that if the worms had brown markings on more than a third of their body, winters tended to be milder.

Most scientists view the folklore of caterpillar predictions as just that, folklore. “It’s a wonderful story, but I do think it was a playful trial,” says Joe Boggs, an entomologist at Ohio State University Extension who has studied woolly worms. “Curran was a real scientist. He had tons of papers published, but he never published this one — probably because he knew it wouldn’t stand up to peer review.”

Mike Peters, an entomologist at the University of Massachusetts, doesn’t disagree, but he says there could be a link between the band of a caterpillar and the severity of winter. Peters suggests that the timing of their growth and environmental conditions, such as temperature, moisture levels, and food sources, can impact the appearance of woolly worms, including their size, coloration, and band patterns. By analyzing these characteristics, researchers can potentially infer information about the weather conditions. “The band does say something about a heavy winter,” he says. “The only thing is that it’s telling you about the previous year.”

1. How do people predict the weather through caterpillars?

A．By analyzing their living habits.

B．By measuring the change of their size.

C．By calculating the number of their segments.

D．By studying color bands on their bodies.

2. What is Howard Curran’s finding based on?

A．His personal observations.

B．An investigation on the locals.

C．Studies by previous scientists.

D．Statistics collected by the museum.

3. What is Joe Boggs’s attitude towards the folklore?

A．Positive.

B．Indifferent.

C．Doubtful.

D．Unclear.

4. Which statement might Mike Peters agree with?

A．The caterpillar forecasting needs long-term data to support it.

B．The color band of caterpillars can be a mirror of past weather.

C．The cold environment has a great impact on caterpillars’ growth.

D．The caterpillar can help predict the severity of winter accurately.