1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?| A．The methods of estimation. | B．The underlying logic of the effect. |
| C．The causes of people’s errors. | D．The design of Galton’s experiment. |
| A．the crowds were relatively small | B．there were occasional underestimates |
| C．individuals did not communicate | D．estimates were not fully independent |
| A．The size of the groups. | B．The dominant members. |
| C．The discussion process. | D．The individual estimates. |
| A．Unclear. | B．Dismissive. | C．Doubtful. | D．Approving. |
One morning this summer holiday, I was running on the road when I saw an elderly foreign lady waving her phone at me, speaking to me in a foreign language. Obviously, she didn’t speak English at all. When I listened to her more carefully, I found she was speaking German. She was clearly lost and trying to walk to the house where she lived. She showed me screen shots of maps on her phone as if she wanted me to help her find her way home. Actually, I learned some German in my spare time because our school will have German classes the next term. However, I was so poor at it that it was almost useless in practice.
I studied nearby and I knew my classmate, Lisa, who was good at speaking German. So I decided to telephone her. “Hi, Lisa. I came across a German lady. Do you have time to come and act as a translator now?” I said and then sent her my location, Unfortunately, Lisa answered, “Sorry, Belle. I’m shopping now. I can reach your place in about half an hour.” Hearing that, I had to tell her that I could manage myself.
Suddenly, an idea flashed through my mind. I downloaded a translation app and used the voice function to translate what the lady said into English. Just in this way, I learned that she came here to visit her daughter who was new to the city to teach. And I also determined the address she needed to get to. It was not far from here to her house, so I offered to walk with her to her destination. She was greatly grateful to me and kept saying sorry for taking my time.
When we got to the house, her daughter just came back. She was as touched by my kindness as her mother. I kept reminding her that it was no trouble for me, and that I only intend-ed to make sure her mother got there safely.
Walking with the lady was more rewarding than running alone. Despite having to rely on technology to communicate due to the language barrier, I felt lucky to have been able to help her. When I left, I couldn’t wait to share the wonderful experience with Lisa.
注意：
1.续写词数应为150左右;
2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
No sooner had I picked up my phone than Lisa called me.
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When the German teacher entered the classroom in the new term, I felt I’d seen her somewhere before.
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要求：1.题目自拟；
2.简述图片中的现象；
3.发表自己的看法。
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