8 . Think of a city you know, and try to picture it five years from now. Will its streets be full of electric cars. some of them self-driving? If so, then the current problem facing electric vehicles (EVs) will be a minor problem. However, US sales have slowed well below the government’s target, EVs’ share of the British market has stopped growing and only 1. 2 percent of European passenger cars in 2022 were battery-powered. My bet is that, in cities at least, the c-car won’t gain the upper hand in the years to come.

EVs emit more carbon over their life cycle than any form of urban transport except petrol cars. They are still worthwhile for people in suburbs, who drive long distances every day and who will earn back the emissions and the financial expenses by never buying gas again.

EVs face many other obstacles. Cities are claiming back space from cars. Paris, where I live, is having a vote on February 4 on a special parking tax for heavier SUVs. In a few years, mayors might start handling self-driving cars. These are so convenient that if they ever became affordable for the mass market. almost everyone would buy one, and they would clog up (阻塞) cities.

Then there’s the problem of charging EVs. Suburbanites with home garages can install chargers, but the lack of public chargers on city streets hasn’t become a major issue yet only because so few people own EVs. Even if you find an urban charger that works, charging can take hours.

Crucially, most of the world’s EVs with high quality are made in China, so there won’t be an aggressive western lobby (游说团) casing their way. On the contrary, governments may well raise taxes to block them rather than let China outperform yet another western industry.

For a city-resident getting rid of a petrol car, the calculation then becomes: instead of an EV, can I buy a much cheaper, health-giving e-bike that I can charge in my flat, and supplement that with the odd taxi ride? That is the trend. Looking back in five years, we may conclude that electric cars were made for American suburbia and for almost nowhere else.