1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?| A．The methods of estimation. | B．The underlying logic of the effect. |
| C．The causes of people’s errors. | D．The design of Galton’s experiment. |
| A．the crowds were relatively small | B．there were occasional underestimates |
| C．individuals did not communicate | D．estimates were not fully independent |
| A．The size of the groups. | B．The dominant members. |
| C．The discussion process. | D．The individual estimates. |
| A．Unclear. | B．Dismissive. | C．Doubtful. | D．Approving. |
Jean’s dream was to be a great chef, so when she was 20, she travelled to France, which has the most famous cuisine in the world, to learn to cook. After twelve years, she was among the best.
Her father, Bob, was getting old, and she wanted to be near him. Jean accepted an offer from one of Washington’s top restaurants. The manager offered her a handsome salary, and 30% ownership of the restaurant. The next day, Jean went to sign the contract. As she got out of the car, she caught sight of a green sunshade. Instead of going to meet the manager, she crossed the street towards the old restaurant, Fargonetti’s. She pushed open the door and the memories came flooding back.
Jean’s mum died when she was just 11, and her father lost his job and was forced to freelance (从事自由职业). Money was very short. When Jean turned thirteen, Bob had made a reservation at Fargonetti’s, the capital’s best restaurant.
“I’m not hungry, baby girl. I had a huge breakfast,” Bob said. “This is all for you!” “Oh,” Jean cried. “Daddy was so silly! He’s been saving to come here for lunch for MONTHS and now he ruined his appetite with breakfast!” The waiter, Carl Bader, immediately realised what was going on and went to Mr Fargonetti, the restaurant owner, and told him about Jean and Bob.
An hour later, surprisingly, the waiter brought wonderful dishes and set them before the father and daughter. “Lunch is on the house with Mr Fargoneti’s compliments (致意),” Carl said. For Bob and Jean, it was a free but magical meal. They were on cloud nine when they walked out. “Jean,“ said Bob happily. “I feel our luck has changed!” And it did! The next day, one of Bob’s old friends called and offered him a job at a new magazine, and Jean believed Fargonetti’s had made it all happen. That was when she decided to become a chef!
Twenty years later, the old restaurant looked run-down and sad, but Jean recognised the waiter immediately. “Carl?” she asked delightedly.
注意：1.续写词数应为150左右；2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
The man looked surprised.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Jean was staring at Carl and a brilliant idea was taking shape in her mind.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________I was invited to a cookout on an old friend’s farm in western Washington. I parked my car outside the farm and walked past a milking house which had apparently not been used in many years. A noise at a window caught my attention, so I entered it. It was a hummingbird (蜂鸟), desperately trying to escape. She was covered in spider-webs (蛛网) and was barely able to move her wings. She ceased her struggle the instant I picked her up.
With the bird in my cupped hand, I looked around to see how she had gotten in. The broken window glass was the likely answer. I stuffed a piece of cloth into the hole and took her outside, closing the door securely behind me.
When I opened my hand, the bird did not fly away; she sat looking at me with her bright eyes. I removed the sticky spider-webs that covered her head and wings. Still, she made no attempt to fly. Perhaps she had been struggling against the window too long and was too tired? Or too thirsty?
As I carried her up the blackberry-lined path toward my car where I kept a water bottle, she began to move. I stopped, and she soon took wing but did not immediately fly away.
Hovering (悬停), she approached within six inches of my face. For a very long moment, this tiny creature looked into my eyes, turning her head from side to side. Then she flew quickly out of sight.
During the cookout, I told my hosts about the hummingbird incident. They promised to fix the window. As I was departing, my friends walked me to my car. I was standing by the car when a hummingbird flew to the center of our group and began hovering. She turned from person to person until she came to me. She again looked directly into my eyes, then let out a squeaking call and was gone. For a moment, all were speechless. Then someone said, “She must have come to say goodbye.”
注意：1. 续写词数应为 150 左右；
2. 请按如下格式在答题纸的相应位置作答。
A few weeks later, I went to the farm again.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________I was just about to leave when the hummingbird appeared.
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