1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?A.The methods of estimation. | B.The underlying logic of the effect. |
C.The causes of people’s errors. | D.The design of Galton’s experiment. |
A.the crowds were relatively small | B.there were occasional underestimates |
C.individuals did not communicate | D.estimates were not fully independent |
A.The size of the groups. | B.The dominant members. |
C.The discussion process. | D.The individual estimates. |
A.Unclear. | B.Dismissive. | C.Doubtful. | D.Approving. |
2 . Can We Stop Food Longing Through Imaginary Eating?
Are you fighting an urge to reach for chocolate? Then, let it melt in your mind, not in your mouth. According to the recent research, imagining eating a specific food reduces your interest in that food, so you eat less of it.
This reaction to repeated exposure to food—being less interested in something because you’ve experienced it too much—is called habituation.
The research is the first to show that habituation can occur through the power of the mind. “If you just think about the food itself—how it tastes and smells—that will increase your appetite,” said Carey Morewedge, a well-known psychologist. “It might be better to force yourself to repeatedly think about chewing and swallowing the food in order to reduce your longing.
Morewedge conducted an interesting experiment. 51 subjects were divided into three groups. One group was asked to imagine putting 30 coins into a laundry machine and then eating three chocolates.
A.What’s more, this only works with the specific food you’ve imagined. |
B.People were advised to try different methods to perform the experiment. |
C.For example, a tenth bite is desired less than the first bite, according to the study. |
D.All of them then ate freely from bowls containing the same amount of chocolate each. |
E.It meant those who repeatedly imagined eating would concern about some specific food. |
F.This requires the same motor skills as eating small chocolates from a packet, the study says. |
G.This study is part of the research looking into what makes us eat more than we actually need. |
要求:1.题目自拟;
2.简述图片中的现象;
3.发表自己的看法。
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阅读下面短文,从短文后所给的四个选项(A、B、C和D)中选出可以填入空白处的最佳选项。
Several years ago, while attending a communication course, I experienced a most unusual process. The instructor asked us to list
This seemed like a very
Then the man next to me raised his hand and volunteered this story: “Making my
After drinking a few beers, we climbed the tall water tank in the middle of the town, and wrote on the tank in bright red paint: Sheriff Brown is a SOB (畜生). The next day, almost the whole town saw our glorious
Nearly 20 years later, Sheriff Brown’s name
“And I want you to know that I did it.” Paused. “I knew it!” he yelled back. We had a good laugh and a
Jimmy inspired me to
A.something | B.anything | C.somebody | D.anybody |
A.ashamed | B.afraid | C.sure | D.proud |
A.private | B.boring | C.interesting | D.funny |
A.foolish | B.polite | C.simple | D.brave |
A.expected | B.suggested | C.ordered | D.demanded |
A.connect with | B.depend on | C.make apologies to | D.get along with |
A.improve | B.continue | C.realize | D.keep |
A.notes | B.list | C.plan | D.stories |
A.any | B.most | C.none | D.all |
A.part | B.game | C.trick | D.record |
A.view | B.sign | C.attention | D.remark |
A.also | B.even | C.still | D.ever |
A.appears | B.considers | C.presents | D.remembers |
A.angry | B.happy | C.doubtful | D.alive |
A.words | B.rings | C.repeats | D.calls |
A.cold | B.plain | C.nervous | D.lively |
A.in case | B.so long as | C.unless | D.because |
A.around | B.out | C.through | D.away |
A.build up | B.make up | C.clear up | D.give up |
A.regret | B.forgive | C.right | D.punish |
(1)你的态度;
(2)你的理由;
(3)你的建议。
注意:(1)词数80左右;
(2)可适当添加细节,以使行文连贯。
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