1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

6 . Most glitter(小发光物品), which is made up of tiny pieces of plastic, is a huge danger to the environment. “Everyone talks about the mountain of plastic floating in the ocean. You can grab empty bottles from the water, but with tiny pieces, it’s impossible,” says Victor Alvarez, a chemical engineer who sells an eco-friendly alternative to glitter.

In the early 2,000s, Alvarez worked for Mercedes-Benz in Germany, where he became fond of any technology that protected the environment. A few years after leaving Mercedes-Benz, he founded Blue Sun International in Miami, which makes specialty ingredients for the skin and hair care industries.

Glitter is a popular ingredient in cosmetics, such as eye shadows and lipsticks. So Alvarez began researching an alternative that didn’t contain plastic to make his products safer for the environment. That’s when he came across Ronald Britton Ltd., a company which had developed a plastic-free, biodegradable product called Bioglitter. It is made from regenerative cellulose(纤维素) sourced from hardwoods, primarily eucalyptus(桉树). Alvarez worked with the company to become the first retailer to sell Bioglitter in America. In 2018, he formed Today Glitter in order to sell the biodegradable glitter directly to consumers through its website.

Today Glitter sells two kinds of biodegradable glitter Bioglitter Sparkle and Bioglitter Pure. Both are almost plastic-free and can biodegrade in a short time. Meanwhile, they are as shiny as regular glitter. All these products are third-party tested by TÜV, an international organization that provides testing and certification for compostable (可降解的) and biodegradable products.

Despite its benefits, the hardwoods needed to make biodegradable glitter cause it to cost about twice as much as conventional glitter. A small glass container that contains just 6 grams of Bioglitter costs $10, while the same amount of regular glitter could cost at least half that amount. Alvarez expects the price will come down over time. He also expects the company’s sales to cross $1 million next year. But more importantly, Alvarez says, his main goal is to effect a meaningful change.

7 . Ayung River Rafting

About the trip

Explore Ayung River Rafting, the longest river rafting in Ayung River, a white-water rafting! The river is classified to level II to III and your rafting trip will be approximately 2 hours. Our friendly and experienced raft guides will take you on a safe and fun trip. You’ll find a level of professionalism that offers unique insights into Bali’s natural wonders and memorable experiences through the rainforest. Don’t miss out on this unforgettable adventure that showcases the beauty of Ayung River and the excitement and thrills of tackling the rapids of the Ayung River.

Tips

●We suggest you bring short pants or a swimsuit, a pair of changing clothes, sunscreen and extra money for drinks and souvenirs (纪念品).

●Steep road lies at the beginning and at the end of the tour, please be ready to walk with reliable shoes!

●Plastic bags for wet clothes are available, but you are advised to bring your own to reduce plastic use.

●Single-use raincoats are available if it rains. However, please bring your own to reduce plastic use.

8 . The Benefits of After-school Activities

Your kid is asking for piano lessons, joining a soccer team or taking ballet classes, but you’re not so sure that your money will be well spent.     1     , read these next benefits of participating in hobbies outside the home. It might just convince you to book the first class.

From arts and poem writing to music and crafts, there are lots of creative after-school activities available out there for kids of all ages. Not only do these classes stimulate your little one’s imagination, but they also encourage curiosity.     2     . Interacting with others, sharing, cooperating and solving conflicts are all added bonuses and they are all extremely helpful tools in building self-confidence.

These days, the fast-paced world we live in causes stress to us all, including children — and providing fun environments and spaces where they can feel safe and creative is an excellent idea to help your child reduce the stress.    4     . You have to aim to eliminate the stressors in your child’s life, regardless of the type of stress your child is dealing with, be it the case of shyness, social anxiety or pressure from school or home life.

Avoiding childhood obesity has become a real issue in a world where kids spend more and more time indoors, glued to screens. But if your child shows any interest in a sport (even if just by watching it on their iPad), grab the opportunity and introduce after-school activities that focus on said physical activity. In these activities, your kids can also learn important lessons like respecting others and teamwork.     5     .

10 . Science reporting on climate change does lead Americans to adopt more accurate beliefs and support government action on the issue, but these gains are fragile, a new study suggests. Researchers found that these accurate beliefs fade quickly when people are exposed to coverage skeptical of climate change.

“It is not the case that the American public does not respond to scientifically informed reporting when they are exposed to it,” said Thomas Wood, associate professor of political science at the Ohio State University. “But even truly accurate science reporting recedes from people’s frame of reference very quickly.”

Results showed that accurate science reporting didn’t persuade only politicians and people who initially rejected human-caused climate change also had their opinions shifted by reading accurate articles. The study involved 2,898 online participants who participated in four waves of the experiment during the fall of 2020.

In the first wave, they all read authentic articles in the popular media that provided information reflecting the seientifie views on climate change. In the second and third waves, they read either another scientific article, an opinion article that was skeptical of climate science, or an article on an unrelated subjeet. In the fourth wave, the participants simply were asked their beliefs about the science of climate change and their policy attitudes.

To rate participants’ scientific understanding. the researchers asked after each wave if they believed that climate change is happening and has a human cause. To measure their attitudes, researchers asked participants if they favored government action on climate change and if they favored renewable energy.

“What we found suggests that people need to hear the same accurate messages about climate change again and again. If they only hear it once, it recedes very quickly,” Wood said. It was significant that accurate reporting had positive effects on all groups, including those who originally rejected climate change. But it was even more encouraging that it affected attitudes.