1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?A.The methods of estimation. | B.The underlying logic of the effect. |
C.The causes of people’s errors. | D.The design of Galton’s experiment. |
A.the crowds were relatively small | B.there were occasional underestimates |
C.individuals did not communicate | D.estimates were not fully independent |
A.The size of the groups. | B.The dominant members. |
C.The discussion process. | D.The individual estimates. |
A.Unclear. | B.Dismissive. | C.Doubtful. | D.Approving. |
2 . As cities balloon with growth, access to nature for people living in urban areas is becoming harder to find. If you’re lucky, there might be a pocket park near where you live, but it’s unusual to find places in a city that are relatively wild.
Past research has found health and wellness benefits of nature for humans, but a new study shows that wildness in urban areas is extremely important for human well-being.
The research team focused on a large urban park. They surveyed several hundred park-goers, asking them to submit a written summary online of a meaningful interaction they had with nature in the park. The researchers then examined these submissions, coding (编码) experiences into different categories. For example, one participant’s experience of “We sat and listened to the waves at the beach for a while” was assigned the categories “sitting at beach” and “listening to waves.”
Across the 320 submissions, a pattern of categories the researchers call a “nature language” began to emerge. After the coding of all submissions, half a dozen categories were noted most often as important to visitors. These include encountering wildlife, walking along the edge of water, and following an established trail.
Naming each nature experience creates a usable language, which helps people recognize and take part in the activities that are most satisfying and meaningful to them. For example, the experience of walking along the edge of water might be satisfying for a young professional on a weekend hike in the park. Back downtown during a workday, they can enjoy a more domestic form of this interaction by walking along a fountain on their lunch break.
“We’re trying to generate a language that helps bring the human-nature interactions back into our daily lives. And for that to happen, we also need to protect nature so that we can interact with it,” said Peter Kahn, a senior author of the study.
1. What phenomenon does the author describe at the beginning of the text?A.Pocket parks are now popular. | B.Wild nature is hard to find in cities. |
C.Many cities are overpopulated. | D.People enjoy living close to nature. |
A.To compare different types of park-goers. | B.To explain why the park attracts tourists. |
C.To analyze the main features of the park. | D.To find patterns in the visitors’ summaries. |
A.Walking is the best way to gain access to nature. |
B.Young people are too busy to interact with nature. |
C.The same nature experience takes different forms. |
D.The nature language enhances work performance. |
A.Language study. | B.Environmental conservation. |
C.Public education. | D.Intercultural communication. |
3 . Like many young people, Jessica wants to travel the globe. Unlike most of them, this 25-year-old is doing it
They’re part of a new form of the
It’s not all sightseeing. The two travelers carefully
The couple has a high
A.indoors | B.online | C.single-handed | D.full-time |
A.game | B.service | C.vacation | D.procedure |
A.safe | B.busy | C.helpful | D.affordable |
A.local | B.private | C.sharing | D.agricultural |
A.strangers’ | B.parents’ | C.co-workers’ | D.neighbors’ |
A.favor | B.defense | C.honor | D.absence |
A.plan | B.explain | C.compare | D.complete |
A.buy | B.transport | C.choose | D.please |
A.support | B.comfort | C.control | D.attention |
A.cooking | B.staying | C.waiting | D.studying |
A.success | B.survival | C.growth | D.unemployment |
A.budget | B.abilities | C.expectations | D.understanding |
A.admiring | B.donating | C.sending | D.borrowing |
A.clean | B.open | C.simple | D.empty |
A.guess | B.decision | C.response | D.impression |
4 . Over the last seven years, most states have banned texting by drivers, and public service campaigns have tried a wide range of methods to persuade people to put down their phones when they are behind the wheel.
Yet the problem, by just about any measure, appears to be getting worse. Americans are still texting while driving, as well as using social networks and taking photos. Road accidents, which had fallen for years, are now rising sharply.
That is partly because people are driving more, but Mark Rosekind, the chief of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, said distracted(分心)driving was "only increasing, unfortunately."
"Big change requires big ideas." he said in a speech last month, referring broadly to the need to improve road safety. So to try to change a distinctly modern behavior, lawmakers and public health experts are reaching back to an old approach: They want to treat distracted driving like drunk driving.
An idea from lawmakers in New York is to give police officers a new device called the Textalyzer. It would work like this: An officer arriving at the scene of a crash could ask for the phones of the drivers and use the Textalyzer to check in the operating system for recent activity. The technology could determine whether a driver had just texted, emailed or done anything else that is not allowed under New York's hands-free driving laws.
"We need something on the books that can change people's behavior,” said Félix W. Ortiz, who pushed for the state's 2001 ban on hand-held devices by drivers. If the Textalyzer bill becomes law, he said, "people are going to be more afraid to put their hands on the cell phone."
1. Which of the following best describes the ban on drivers' texting in the US?A.Ineffective. | B.Unnecessary. |
C.Inconsistent. | D.Unfair. |
A.Where a driver came from. | B.Whether a driver used their phone. |
C.How fast a driver was going. | D.When a driver arrived at the scene. |
A.Advice. | B.Data. | C.Tests. | D.Laws. |
A.To Drive or Not to Drive? Think Before You Start |
B.Texting and Driving? Watch Out for the Textalyzer |
C.New York Banning Hand-Held Devices by Drivers. |
D.The Next Generation Cell Phone: The Textalyzer- |
The shelves in most supermarkets are full of family-size this and multi-buy that. However, if you’re shopping for one, buying extra
Of course, shops are not charities — they price goods in the way
Many supermarkets are no longer doing “buy one get one free” promotions because of the
If your supermarket sells loose produce, then buying smaller quantities is easier. Over the last two years, some supermarkets
Who knows, perhaps some of the more forward-looking
6 . The Biggest Stadiums in the World
People have been pouring into stadiums since the days of ancient Greece. In around 80 A.D., the Romans built the Colosseum, which remains the world’s best known stadium and continues to inform contemporary design. Rome’s Colosseum was 157 feet tall and had 80 entrances, seating 50,000 people. However, that was small fry compared with the city’s Circus Maximus, which accommodated around 250,000 people.
These days, safety regulations-not to mention the modern sports fan’s desire for a good view and comfortable seat — tend to keep stadium capacities (容量) slightly lower. Even soccer fans tend to have a seat each; gone are the days of thousands standing to watch the match.
For the biggest stadiums in the world, we have used data supplied by the World Atlas list so far, which ranks them by their stated permanent capacity, as well as updated information from official stadium websites.
All these stadiums are still functional, still open and still hosting the biggest events in world sport.
·Rungrado 1st of May Stadium, Pyongyang D.P.R. Korea. Capacity: 150,000. Opened: May 1,1989.
·Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U. S. Capacity: 107,601. Opened: October 1, 1927.
·Beaver Stadium, State College, Pennsylvania, U. S. Capacity: 106,572. Opened: September 17, 1960.
·Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio, U. S. Capacity: 104,944. Opened: October 7,1922.
·Kyle Field, College Station, Texas, U. S. Capacity: 102,512. Opened: September 24, 1927.
1. How many people could the Circus Maximus hold?A.104,944. | B.107,601. | C.About 150,000. | D.About 250,000. |
A.Michigan Stadium. | B.Beaver Stadium. | C.Ohio Stadium. | D.Kyle Field. |
A.They host big games. | B.They have become tourist attractions. |
C.They were built by Americans. | D.They are favored by architects. |
7 . When almost everyone has a mobile phone, why are more than half of Australian homes still paying for a landline (座机)?
These days you’d be hard pressed to find anyone in Australia over the age of 15 who doesn’t own a mobile phone. In fact plenty of younger kids have one in their pocket. Practically everyone can make and receive calls anywhere, anytime.
Still, 55 percent of Australians have a landline phone at home and only just over a quarter (29%) rely only on their smartphones according to a survey (调查). Of those Australians who still have a landline, a third concede that it’s not really necessary and they’re keeping it as a security blanket — 19 percent say they never use it while a further 13 percent keep it in case of emergencies. I think my home falls into that category.
More than half of Australian homes are still choosing to stick with their home phone. Age is naturally a factor (因素)— only 58 percent of Generation Ys still use landlines now and then, compared to 84 percent of Baby Boomers who’ve perhaps had the same home number for 50 years. Age isn’t the only factor; I’d say it’s also to do with the makeup of your household.
Generation Xers with young families, like my wife and I, can still find it convenient to have a home phone rather than providing a mobile phone for every family member. That said, to be honest the only people who ever ring our home phone are our Baby Boomers parents, to the point where we play a game and guess who is calling before we pick up the phone (using Caller ID would take the fun out of it).
How attached are you to your landline? How long until they go the way of gas street lamps and morning milk deliveries?
1. What does paragraph 2 mainly tell us about mobile phones?A.Their target users. | B.Their wide popularity. |
C.Their major functions. | D.Their complex design. |
A.Admit. | B.Argue. |
C.Remember. | D.Remark. |
A.They like smartphone games. | B.They enjoy guessing callers’ identity. |
C.They keep using landline phones. | D.They are attached to their family. |
A.It remains a family necessity. |
B.It will fall out of use some day. |
C.It may increase daily expenses. |
D.It is as important as the gas light. |
8 . Over the past 38 years, Mr. Wang has pretended to be someone else many times,and has even learned to
The 60-year-old is not an actor, but a
In the 1990s, a group of thieves often sold stolen goods with the help of some beggars. To look into the
“I often
Wang, who is often in
Wang's
A.teach | B.compare | C.assess | D.speak |
A.lawyer | B.doctor | C.policeman | D.businessman |
A.role | B.study | C.family | D.audience |
A.minor | B.case | C.future | D.question |
A.interviewed | B.joined | C.arrested | D.assisted |
A.challenge | B.experience | C.appearance | D.freedom |
A.vote | B.sympathy | C.permission | D.trust |
A.invited | B.forced | C.helped | D.expected |
A.drunk | B.deserted | C.bored | D.lost |
A.guide | B.persuade | C.excuse | D.allow |
A.refer to | B.note down | C.ask about | D.miss out |
A.plan | B.agreement | C.direction | D.information |
A.awkward | B.dangerous | C.unfortunate | D.strange |
A.separate | B.recover | C.escape | D.hear |
A.courage | B.honesty | C.kindness | D.optimism |
9 . A Take a view, the Landscape(风景)Photographer of the Year Award, was the idea of Charlie Waite, one of today’s most respected landscape photographers.Each year, the high standard of entries has shown that the Awards are the perfect platform to showcase the very best photography of the British landscape.Take a view is a desirable annual competition for photographers from all comers of the UK and beyond.
Mike Shepherd(2011) Skiddaw in Winter Cumbria, England | It was an extremely cold winter’s evening and freezing fog hung in the air. I climbed to the top of a small rise and realised that the mist was little more than a few feet deep, and though it was only a short climb, I found myself completely above it and looking at a wonderfully clear view of Skiddaw with the sun setting in the west. I used classical techniques, translated from my college days spent in the darkroom into Photoshop, to achieve the black—and—white image(图像). |
Timothy Smith(2014) Macclesfield Forest Cheshire, England | I was back in my home town of Macclesfield to take some winter images. Walking up a path through the forest towards Shutlingsloe. a local high point, I came across a small clearing and immediately noticed the dead yellow grasses set against the fresh snow. The small pine added to the interest and I placed it centrally to take the view from the foreground right through into the forest. |
A.Writers. | B.Photographers. | C.Painters. | D.Tourists. |
A.They are winter images. |
B.They are in black and white. |
C.They show mountainous scenes. |
D.They focus on snow—covered forests. |
A.In a history book. | B.In a novel. | C.In an art magazine. | D.In a biography. |
10 . The benefits of regular exercise are well documented but there’s a new bonus to add to the ever-growing list. New researchers found that middle-aged women who were physically fit could be nearly 90 percent less likely to develop dementia in later life, and as they did, it came on a decade later than less sporty women.
Lead researcher Dr. Helena Horder, of the University of Gothenburg in Sweden, said : "These findings are exciting because it’s possible that improving people's cardiovascular (心血管的)fitness in middle age could delay or even prevent them from developing dementia. "
For the study, 191 women with an average age of 50 took a bicycle exercise test until they were exhausted to measure their peak (最大值的) cardiovascular capacity. The average peak workload was measured at 103 watts.
A total of 40 women met the criteria for a high fitness level, or 120 watts or higher. A total of 92 women were in the medium fitness category; and 59 women were in the low fitness category, defined as a peak workload of 80 watts or less, or having their exercise tests stopped because of high blood pressure, chest pain or other cardiovascular problems.
These women were then tested for dementia six times over the following four decades. During that time, 44 of the women developed dementia. Five percent of the highly fit women developed dementia, compared to 25 percent of the women with medium fitness and 32 percent of the women with low fitness.
"However, this study does not show cause and effect between cardiovascular fitness and dementia, it only shows an association. More research is needed to see if improved fitness could have a positive effect on the risk of dementia and also to look at when during a lifetime a high fitness level is most important. " She also admitted that a relatively small number of women were studied, all of whom were form Sweden, so the results might not be applicable to other groups.
1. What is on the ever-growing list mentioned in the first paragraph?A.Positive effects of doing exercises. |
B.Exercises suitable for the middle-aged. |
C.Experimental studies on diseases. |
D.Advantages of sporty woman over man |
A.To predict their maximum heart rate. |
B.To assess their cardiovascular capacity |
C.To change their habits of working out |
D.To detect their potential health problems |
A.It aimed to find a cure for dementia. |
B.Data collection was a lengthy process. |
C.Some participants withdrew from it. |
D.The results were far from satisfactory. |
A.More Women Are Exercising to Prevent Dementia |
B.Middle-Aged Women Need to Do More Exercise |
C.Fit Women Are Less Likely to Develop Dementia |
D.Biking Improves Women's Cardiovascular Fitness |