3 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?

A．The methods of estimation.	B．The underlying logic of the effect.
C．The causes of people’s errors.	D．The design of Galton’s experiment.

2. Navajas’ study found that the average accuracy could increase even if ________.

A．the crowds were relatively small	B．there were occasional underestimates
C．individuals did not communicate	D．estimates were not fully independent

3. What did the follow-up study focus on?

A．The size of the groups.	B．The dominant members.
C．The discussion process.	D．The individual estimates.

4. What is the author’s attitude toward Navajas’ studies?

A．Unclear.

B．Dismissive.

C．Doubtful.

D．Approving.

4 . 阅读下面材料，根据其内容和所给段落开头语续写两段，使之构成一篇完整的短文。

I was invited to a cookout on an old friend’s farm in western Washington. I parked my car outside the farm and walked past a milking house which had apparently not been used in many years. A noise at a window caught my attention, so I entered it. It was a hummingbird (蜂鸟), desperately trying to escape. She was covered in spider-webs (蛛网) and was barely able to move her wings. She ceased her struggle the instant I picked her up.

With the bird in my cupped hand, I looked around to see how she had gotten in. The broken window glass was the likely answer. I stuffed a piece of cloth into the hole and took her outside, closing the door securely behind me.

When I opened my hand, the bird did not fly away; she sat looking at me with her bright eyes. I removed the sticky spider-webs that covered her head and wings. Still, she made no attempt to fly. Perhaps she had been struggling against the window too long and was too tired? Or too thirsty?

As I carried her up the blackberry-lined path toward my car where I kept a water bottle, she began to move. I stopped, and she soon took wing but did not immediately fly away.

Hovering (悬停), she approached within six inches of my face. For a very long moment, this tiny creature looked into my eyes, turning her head from side to side. Then she flew quickly out of sight.

During the cookout, I told my hosts about the hummingbird incident. They promised to fix the window. As I was departing, my friends walked me to my car. I was standing by the car when a hummingbird flew to the center of our group and began hovering. She turned from person to person until she came to me. She again looked directly into my eyes, then let out a squeaking call and was gone. For a moment, all were speechless. Then someone said, “She must have come to say goodbye.”

注意：
1. 续写词数应为 150 左右；
2. 请按如下格式在答题纸的相应位置作答。

A few weeks later, I went to the farm again.

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I was just about to leave when the hummingbird appeared.

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5 . My students frequently ask me how I planned out my career to become president of Fidelity Investments. I always tell them, “There was no grand plan; I backed into my career one step at a time.” In this tough economy and ever-changing world, it is more important than ever to smartly evaluate each step in your career. To prepare for whatever surprises lie ahead, try to make choices today that will maximize your options in the future.     1    

Gaining transferable (可转移的) knowledge begins with the choices you make at school. You want your education to provide you with the necessary skills and expertise to succeed in a wide variety of jobs.     2     I favor those that involve extensive writing, rigorous analysis, or quantitative skills.

Once you have finished your formal education, search for jobs that will allow you to further expand your transferable knowledge—to help you find your next job. Let’s say you take a job putting together airplane leases. Within a few years, you could become the world’s expert on the subject.     3     By contrast, if you take a job that will expand your computer programming skills, you can greatly boost your options for later steps in your career.

Remember gaining transferable knowledge is only one piece of the puzzle.     4     As a saying goes, “Organizations don’t hire people. People hire people.” The more people you know, the more people will think of you when a job pops open—even when it is not publicly advertised.

Of course, you can build your network to some degree without changing jobs.     5     But this sort of event-driven networking pales in comparison with the deep bonds you can develop with your colleagues by working, communicating, and traveling with them.

A．You can make yourself more attractive.

B．Gain transferable expertise and form close bonds with your colleagues.

C．Your next step should help you expand your web of personal relationships.

D．This later helped me evaluate and start business units throughout the world.

E．You can attend conferences or participate in committees at trade associations.

F．This means that you need to make smart choices about the courses you will follow.

G．However, this narrow expertise probably won’t help you in any other line of work.

6 . 随着社会的发展，各种发明以及高科技产品成为我们日常生活的必需品，如手机（mobile phone）、数码相机（digital camera）等。请以My Favourite Invention为主题，准备一篇发言稿，主要内容包括：
1.你喜欢的科技产品；
2.喜欢的理由。
注意: 1.词数80左右；
2.开头和结尾已给出，不计入总词数。
Hello, everyone,

I’d like to make a speech with the title: My Favourite Invention.

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That’s all. Thank you.

7 . 假定你是李华，你校文化俱乐部即将举办唐诗鉴赏会。请你给交换生朋友Fred写封邮件，邀请他参加。内容包括：
1. 时间、地点； 2. 内容：唐诗诵读与鉴赏、诗歌创作经验交流等；3. 意义。
注意：写作词数应为80左右。
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

8 . 阅读下面材料，根据其内容和所给段落开头语续写两段，使之构成一篇完整的短文。

“Sun, sun, sun, here it comes…”

Danny sang while his fingers pressed and pulled skillfully at the guitar strings, delivering a slow and peaceful tune. A circle of audience had formed, nodding and moving slowly to the song.

Lying at the feet of the street performer was his most adoring fan: One-Eyed, a white stray (流浪) dog with pieces of brown. Danny felt the name was suitable considering its physical disability. Usually, One-Eyed would bark loudly as Danny performed. Much to his annoyance, people often mistook the pair as owner and pet. At this time, Danny would reply, “My dog? No!”, eyes rolling at the idea. How he wished the dog would leave him alone instead!

On a snowy night, while Danny was performing, a bird flew downward, landing into the midst of the crowd. It cooed happily as if to harmonize with Danny. Unfortunately, that did not sit well with One-Eyed, which immediately bounced at it and the bird flew away desperately.

The unexpected chaos upturned Danny's hat, which could have been filled with notes and coins from his appreciative audience, leaving it ignored on the ground. "Argh! The hateful dog!” Danny broke down, thinking to himself, “Either the dog goes or I go!”

On the next night, Danny tried to find a new place and chanced upon the park. For a while his earnings were good unsurprisingly as there was a steady flow of visitors. However, that didn't last long. One-Eyed came along and appointed itself as Danny's guardian. "Argh! Here comes the hateful dog again!" That night, Danny hadn't made enough money he should have, all thanks to the troublesome dog.

Danny was almost mad with One-Eyed. “What should I do? Call an animal shelter?” Torn by this problem, he walked aimlessly by the lake of the park. With all his mind focused on how to get rid of the dog, Danny didn't watch his steps. Suddenly, he slipped and fell into the lake accidentally. Struggling in the icy water, he cried for help desperately, almost choking to death. Sensing the approach of death, Danny got into overwhelming panic.

注意：
1. 续写词数应为150左右；
2. 请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。

Just then, a familiar barking was heard in the distance.

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“My hero! Thank you for saving me,” Danny said gratefully with watery eyes.

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9 . What is volunteer travel?

Volunteer travel involves taking a trip where all or part of the purpose of the trip is to participate in an arranged service opportunity helping others. Typically, the volunteer activity takes place in a foreign country, but some opportunities can involve national or regional projects.     1    

Charitable interests often go far beyond national boundaries. People in developed countries become interested in the struggles of people in less developed countries.     2     Volunteer travel is a way to combine a visit to a new location with meaningful work that has a direct impact on communities in other parts of the world.

    3     Historically, church groups made up a large part of this market. Once a year a religious organization or church would organize a trip to another country.     4     For example, it would be to help build a school in an impoverished(贫困的)area, or dig wells so a village would have clean water, or engage in hundreds of other projects that would impact those less fortunate. As international travel became easier and the Internet made communication between countries much easier, the interest in volunteer travel increased.

    5     Volunteering in other countries has become as accessible as browsing a website and signing up. Instead of traveling with a group that is organized at the volunteers home base, the volunteer may join a group that gathers at the worksite from all over the world. This sort of volunteer travel is sometimes referred to as voluntourism or vacanteerism.

A．The primary purpose of the trip was very specific.

B．This type of travel has been an option for many years.

C．Educational institutions also made volunteer travel an option.

D．Sometimes, donating money is not enough to satisfy the need to help.

E．The Internet has helped make community service in general more popular.

F．These trips are usually arranged by church organizations, human interest groups or non-profits.

G．A new trend is that for-profit tour operators arrange group travel around volunteer opportunities.