1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?| A．The methods of estimation. | B．The underlying logic of the effect. |
| C．The causes of people’s errors. | D．The design of Galton’s experiment. |
| A．the crowds were relatively small | B．there were occasional underestimates |
| C．individuals did not communicate | D．estimates were not fully independent |
| A．The size of the groups. | B．The dominant members. |
| C．The discussion process. | D．The individual estimates. |
| A．Unclear. | B．Dismissive. | C．Doubtful. | D．Approving. |
“Ugh, chicken rolls again? I hate chicken rolls!” Matt yelled. “I’m not eating this.” Matt’s mom and dad looked at each other. Matt’s outbursts had been happening at least once a week all summer long.
“You know what, Matt? We re going to let you take over dinnertime from now on. You can pick the meals and cook them, as long as they’re healthy,” Mom said.
“Good, we’re going to eat good food every night!” Matt answered.
The next day, Dad sat down with Matt to make the meal plan so he could go grocery shopping. Matt had already been thinking about his favorite dinners. “We’re going to have beef tonight, and spaghetti tomorrow, and macaroni (通心粉) and cheese the next day,” Matt started.
“Woah, hold on now,” Dad said. “What else are we going to have with the beef? We need to have at least one vegetable with each meal, and usually we have another side to go with it.”
“Oh, yeah. Um, we can have corn with the beef,” Matt said.
“Sophia does not like corn,” said Dad.
“Well, it’s my choice, so I’m going to make corn,” Matt replied.
“OK, but she might complain at dinner tonight. Are you ready for that?” Dad asked.
“Yeah, whatever,” Matt answered.
Matt and his dad spent the next hour figuring out the whole week’s meals and side dishes. It was a lot more work than Matt expected, and almost every time he picked something out, his dad would tell him that someone in the family wouldn’t like it. It was very frustrating. “This is impossible!” Matt said.
“Yes, it is hard. Your mother and I try very hard to make everyone happy, but everyone has different tastes, and sometimes, we just can’t please everyone.”
“Fine, we’ll have to just go with this plan this week. Next week I’ll try to make everyone happy,” replied Matt.
注意:1.续写词数应为150左右；
2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
When finishing grocery shopping, it was time for Matt to make his first meal.
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Two hours had passed by before the dishes were ready on the table.
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1. 调查结果；
2. 你的评论。
注意：
1. 写作词数应为80左右；
2. 请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Survey Report on Extracurricular Activities
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注意：1、写作词数在80词左右；
2、可以适当增加细节使行文流畅。
Dear Betty,
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Yours,
Li Hua
A shop owner placed a sign above his door that read:”Puppies for Sale”. Signs like this always have a way of attracting young children,and to no surprise, a boy saw the sign and approached the owner.
“How much are you going to sell the puppies for?” he asked in a low voice.
The store owner replied, Anywhere from $ 30 to $ 50.
The little boy pulled out some change from his pocket. “But I only have $ 2.37,” he said. “Can I please look at them?”
The shop owner smiled and in no second whistled. Out of the kennel came a lady, who ran down the aisle of his shop followed by five teeny, tiny balls of fur. One puppy was lagging considerably behind. Immediately the little boy singled out the lagging, limping（跛行）puppy and said, “What's wrong with that little dog?”
The shop owner sighed and explained that the vet had examined the little puppy and had discovered it didn't have a hip socket（髋臼）. It would always limp.It would always be lame.
Hearing these words, the little boy became excited, “That is the very puppy that I want to buy.”
“No, you don't want to buy that little dog. If you really want him,I'll just give him to you,” the shop owner said, a little bit confused. The little boy got quite upset. He looked straight into the store owner's eyes, pointing his finger, and said, “I don't want you to give him to me.”
注意:1.续写词数应为150左右；2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
“I'll pay full price,” he added, in a firm tone.
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Hearing the owner's words, the little boy rolled up his left trouser leg.
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6 . Self-esteem is the ruling view you have of yourself. This includes your beliefs about your inner qualities and how you think others see you.
People with healthy self-esteem don't need to boast about themselves to others. People with low self-esteem may tell you how much everyone loves them, what a great job they do at work, and how amazing they are at pretty everything under the sun even though they really wonder if it's true. People may see them as obnoxious or “full of themselves”.
If you're starting to think you may have low self-esteem, you can work on the way you talk to yourself. When you turn off negative self-talk, you can open the floor to positive reinforcements and access the courage to show different sides of yourself. It isn't going to feel good at first, though. Keep going until it becomes less and less and maybe even a few awkward laughs in the mirror may help.
However, in serious cases of low or even non-existent self-esteem, you may want to call in a professional or a specialist. Good mental health is important, and professionals doing psychotherapy do not pass judgement or give corrections.
| A．Self-esteem is not always rooted in reality, though. |
| B．You have the power to shape a new self-perception. |
| C．This encourages you to speak openly without worry. |
| D．The real test of character is whether they can learn from their mistakes. |
| E．Self-esteem refers to a person's overall sense of his or her value or worth. |
| F．People with a healthy level of self-esteem present themselves with a casual confidence. |
| G．With some practice and persistence, you will win this internal struggle to see your self-worth. |
某英文网站正在开展以“适应变化”为主题的征文活动，假如你是李华. 请用英语写一篇短文投稿，谈谈你生活中的一个变化，你是如何应对这个变 化的，以及有什么收获。短文词数80左右。
There are many changes in a person's life.
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Wide awake, I sat up in bed before dawn. I'd had another dream about Jennifer, my middle child. She's 38 now. Usually in my dreams she's still a little shy girl.
Jennifer had been five years old and her older sister seven, when the twins were born. Everything changed. The boys demanded much of my time and energy, so I hardly had any left for their older sisters. Sweet, quiet Jennifer, sandwiched between the others, required almost nothing from me. Eventually Jennifer had her own children and lived about an hour and a half away. But it seemed as though she were worlds away.
I often dreamed about her. In this one she was a grown woman and mixed in with a crowd. I waved hard, “Jennifer! I'm over here!” But she didn't notice me.
I longed to hear my daughter's voice and called, “Hey, I had a dream about you.” Then Jennifer surprised me. “I dreamed about you too. But it was terrible. I won't even tell you.”
“But I am eager to hear.”
Her words came out without thinking, “We were walking through a vegetable garden. A farmer shouted that I'd stepped on one of his tomatoes and asked for 43 cents. I didn't have any money and turned to you. You said no. I begged. I woke up in tears.”
The pain in her voice almost cut my breath off. “There were so many things I should have done for you. I overlooked you. You seemed so competent and independent. I forgot you were just a child.”
There was silence on her end of the line. The communication seemed broken again. I called an old friend and told her about Jennifer's dream and our awkward attempt to connect. “Your relationship probably broke down over a lot of little things,” she said.
注意：
1.续写词数应为150左右；
2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。
I realized what I should do to mend our relationship.
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The next day, my daughter called me excitedly.
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