2 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

I was invited to a cookout on an old friend’s farm in western Washington. I parked my car outside the farm and walked past a milking house which had apparently not been used in many years. A noise at a window caught my attention, so I entered it. It was a hummingbird (蜂鸟), desperately trying to escape. She was covered in spider-webs (蛛网) and was barely able to move her wings. She ceased her struggle the instant I picked her up.

With the bird in my cupped hand, I looked around to see how she had gotten in. The broken window glass was the likely answer. I stuffed a piece of cloth into the hole and took her outside, closing the door securely behind me.

When I opened my hand, the bird did not fly away; she sat looking at me with her bright eyes. I removed the sticky spider-webs that covered her head and wings. Still, she made no attempt to fly. Perhaps she had been struggling against the window too long and was too tired? Or too thirsty?

As I carried her up the blackberry-lined path toward my car where I kept a water bottle, she began to move. I stopped, and she soon took wing but did not immediately fly away.

Hovering (悬停), she approached within six inches of my face. For a very long moment, this tiny creature looked into my eyes, turning her head from side to side. Then she flew quickly out of sight.

During the cookout, I told my hosts about the hummingbird incident. They promised to fix the window. As I was departing, my friends walked me to my car. I was standing by the car when a hummingbird flew to the center of our group and began hovering. She turned from person to person until she came to me. She again looked directly into my eyes, then let out a squeaking call and was gone. For a moment, all were speechless. Then someone said, “She must have come to say goodbye.”

A few weeks later, I went to the farm again.

I was just about to leave when the hummingbird appeared.

I’d like to make a speech with the title: My Favourite Invention.

That’s all. Thank you.

5 . What is volunteer travel?

Volunteer travel involves taking a trip where all or part of the purpose of the trip is to participate in an arranged service opportunity helping others. Typically, the volunteer activity takes place in a foreign country, but some opportunities can involve national or regional projects.     1    

Charitable interests often go far beyond national boundaries. People in developed countries become interested in the struggles of people in less developed countries.     2     Volunteer travel is a way to combine a visit to a new location with meaningful work that has a direct impact on communities in other parts of the world.

    3     Historically, church groups made up a large part of this market. Once a year a religious organization or church would organize a trip to another country.     4     For example, it would be to help build a school in an impoverished(贫困的)area, or dig wells so a village would have clean water, or engage in hundreds of other projects that would impact those less fortunate. As international travel became easier and the Internet made communication between countries much easier, the interest in volunteer travel increased.

    5     Volunteering in other countries has become as accessible as browsing a website and signing up. Instead of traveling with a group that is organized at the volunteers home base, the volunteer may join a group that gathers at the worksite from all over the world. This sort of volunteer travel is sometimes referred to as voluntourism or vacanteerism.

One spring morning many years ago, I had been searching for gold along Coho Creek on southeastern Alaska's Kupreanof Island, and as I appeared from a forest, I froze in my tracks. No more than 20 paces away in the bog (沼泽) was a huge Alaskan wolf—caught in one trap.

From her appearance, I guessed that she had been trapped only a few days. I suspected that if I tried to release the mother wolf, she would turn aggressive and try to tear me to pieces.

What's next? I wondered. The mother wolf was clearly suffering. Yet each time I moved in her direction, she let out a howl. I thought I had to find her something to eat.

I hiked toward Coho Creek and spotted the leg of a dead deer. I whispered gently, “OK, Mother, your dinner is served, but only if you stop growling at me. Come on, now. Easy.” She sniffed them, then gobbled them up.

Over the next few days, I divided my time between searching and trying to win the mother wolf's trust. I talked gently with her, threw her more meat. Little by little, I kept edging closer—though I was careful to remain beyond the length of her chain. The big animal never took her dark eyes off me. “Come on, Mother,” I pleaded. “You want to go back to your friends on the mountain. Relax.”

On the fifth day, I delivered her daily meat. “Here's dinner,” I said softly as I approached. I slowly placed my hand on the mother wolf's injured leg. I applied pressure. The trap was open, and the mother wolf pulled free.

My experience in nature suggested that the mother wolf would now disappear into the woods. But cautiously, she walked toward me. Slowly, she sniffed my hands and arms. Yet, strangely, it all seemed so natural.

After a while, the mother wolf was ready to go into the forest. Then she turned back to me. At the same time, the mother wolf sent a long howl into the air. Then she disappeared.

Four years later, after serving in World War II, I returned to Coho Creek. There, standing, I gave out a long, low wolf call—something I had done many times before.

An echo (回声) came back across the distance.

Moments later, the wolf was gone.

10 . How to Feel Connected

It's easy to feel disconnected from what is going on around you in today's fast-paced world.     1     You can get in touch and feel connected, however, by following the tips below:

Consider why you feel disconnected. Knowing what is making you feel disconnected can help you choose the best ways to address it.     2     Ask yourself these questions: Are you keeping yourself occupied with work too much? Do you rely on electronic communication instead of face to face communication? Do you lack friendships that are satisfying?

Interact with people in person. Technology is a great way to stay in touch, but sometimes you need to spend time with other people in person.     3     You can also take steps to feel more connected by making small-talk with strangers who are sharing parts of your day.

    4    

Your loved ones could feel shy, so you may never know how to improve your relationship unless you ask the right questions. Asking them to open the doors can give you some insight on what you can do. Learning this information can help to strengthen your bond.

Show your commitment to them. Simply showing up and being there for your loved ones says a lot about how much you value your relationships. Putting in the time shows them that you are committed and want to stay connected.     5    

Show appreciation. A simple “thank you” goes a very long way. Unfortunately, it is something that people who are close often take for granted. Telling someone you appreciate their time, love, and efforts can strengthen your bond and help you to become more connected.