1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?

A．The methods of estimation.	B．The underlying logic of the effect.
C．The causes of people’s errors.	D．The design of Galton’s experiment.

2. Navajas’ study found that the average accuracy could increase even if ________.

A．the crowds were relatively small	B．there were occasional underestimates
C．individuals did not communicate	D．estimates were not fully independent

3. What did the follow-up study focus on?

A．The size of the groups.	B．The dominant members.
C．The discussion process.	D．The individual estimates.

4. What is the author’s attitude toward Navajas’ studies?

A．Unclear.

B．Dismissive.

C．Doubtful.

D．Approving.

3 . 语法填空

The Million Pound Bank Note

It was the summer of 1903. Two old and wealthy brothers, Roderick and Oliver, made a bet. Oliver believed that with a million pound bank note a man could survive a month in London. His brother Roderick doubted it. At that moment, they saw a penniless young man    1     (wander) on the pavement outside their house. It was Henry Adams, a businessman,     2     was lost in London and did not know what he should do. The two brothers invited Henry in. They asked Henry some questions and they knew Henry was an American and it was the first time that he    3     (come) to London. As a matter of fact, Henry landed in Britain    4     accident. Back home Henry had his own boat. About a month before, he was sailing out of the bay. Then, towards nightfall Henry found himself    5     (carry) out to sea by a strong wind.

The next morning Henry had just about given himself    6     for lost    7     he was spotted by a ship. And it was the ship    8     brought Henry to England. In England, Henry earned his passage by working as an unpaid hand, which accounts for his appearance.     9     (hear) Henry's story, the two brothers gave Henry a letter    10     (contain) a million pound bank note. Their bet began…

6 . 阅读下面材料，根据其内容和所给段落开头语续写两段，使之构成一篇完整的短文。

One morning this summer holiday, I was running on the road when I saw an elderly foreign lady waving her phone at me, speaking to me in a foreign language. Obviously, she didn’t speak English at all. When I listened to her more carefully, I found she was speaking German. She was clearly lost and trying to walk to the house where she lived. She showed me screen shots of maps on her phone as if she wanted me to help her find her way home. Actually, I learned some German in my spare time because our school will have German classes the next term. However, I was so poor at it that it was almost useless in practice.

I studied nearby and I knew my classmate, Lisa, who was good at speaking German. So I decided to telephone her. “Hi, Lisa. I came across a German lady. Do you have time to come and act as a translator now?” I said and then sent her my location, Unfortunately, Lisa answered, “Sorry, Belle. I’m shopping now. I can reach your place in about half an hour.” Hearing that, I had to tell her that I could manage myself.

Suddenly, an idea flashed through my mind. I downloaded a translation app and used the voice function to translate what the lady said into English. Just in this way, I learned that she came here to visit her daughter who was new to the city to teach. And I also determined the address she needed to get to. It was not far from here to her house, so I offered to walk with her to her destination. She was greatly grateful to me and kept saying sorry for taking my time.

When we got to the house, her daughter just came back. She was as touched by my kindness as her mother. I kept reminding her that it was no trouble for me, and that I only intend-ed to make sure her mother got there safely.

Walking with the lady was more rewarding than running alone. Despite having to rely on technology to communicate due to the language barrier, I felt lucky to have been able to help her. When I left, I couldn’t wait to share the wonderful experience with Lisa.

注意：       

1.续写词数应为150左右;

2.请按如下格式在答题卡的相应位置作答。

No sooner had I picked up my phone than Lisa called me.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

When the German teacher entered the classroom in the new term, I felt I’d seen her somewhere before.

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

7 . 你校英文报征文，请结合以下四幅图片中的任意一幅或几幅，按要求用英语写一篇100词左右的作文。
要求：1.题目自拟；
2.简述图片中的现象；
3.发表自己的看法。

________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

8 . 阅读下面材料，根据其内容和所给段落开头语续写两段，使之构成一个完整的短文。

There are lots of chances in front of us. Whether you can seize them or not depends on the choices you make. This reminds me of one choice I made during my childhood.

Two tickets. Only two tickets to the final basketball game.

Three pairs of eyes focused on the tickets in Dad’s out-stretched hand. Mike, the oldest, asked the question running through everyone’s mind, “Only one ticket for us three? But, Dad, which of us will go with you?” Avery, the youngest, repeated the question quietly. I asked Dad if there was any chance to get more tickets. I might be the middle sister, but I was just as eager as my basketball-crazy brothers for a night out with Dad. Dad said he’d got the tickets from a friend and there were only two available.

Seeing that none of us would give up the chance, Dad told us he would choose which of the three of us deserved to go by the following morning.

The next morning, we hurried into the kitchen and looked for Dad, only to find that he had gone out. We were told to get started on our Saturday cleanup as soon as we finished breakfast. Mike complained that he couldn’t concentrate on chores with the game a mere eleven hours away. He slurped the last of his milk, grabbed the basketball and headed towards the back door. Avery dashed after his brother. Before I realized it, the door snapped shut. I glanced out the window and saw Mike practicing his shot while Avery cheered him on.

Seeing the mess on the breakfast table—the leftovers on the sticky plates and dirty cups, I felt frustrated. I approached the window and knocked on it. When the boys looked at me, I held up a kitchen sponge and dishtowel. Mike casually nodded to me and held up five fingers. Sure, five more minutes! I didn’t believe they would return to do the cleanup in five minutes, especially in Dad’s absence. Apparently, they had made their choice.

注意：
1. 所续写短文的词数应为150左右;
2. 续写部分分两段，每段的开头语已为你写好。
Paragraph 1:

Anyway, I chose to do the Saturday morning chores on my own.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Paragraph 2:

Dad was happy to know I found the ticket he had hidden in the cupboard.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________