1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?A.The methods of estimation. | B.The underlying logic of the effect. |
C.The causes of people’s errors. | D.The design of Galton’s experiment. |
A.the crowds were relatively small | B.there were occasional underestimates |
C.individuals did not communicate | D.estimates were not fully independent |
A.The size of the groups. | B.The dominant members. |
C.The discussion process. | D.The individual estimates. |
A.Unclear. | B.Dismissive. | C.Doubtful. | D.Approving. |
I was invited to a cookout on an old friend’s farm in western Washington. I parked my car outside the farm and walked past a milking house which had apparently not been used in many years. A noise at a window caught my attention, so I entered it. It was a hummingbird (蜂鸟), desperately trying to escape. She was covered in spider-webs (蛛网) and was barely able to move her wings. She ceased her struggle the instant I picked her up.
With the bird in my cupped hand, I looked around to see how she had gotten in. The broken window glass was the likely answer. I stuffed a piece of cloth into the hole and took her outside, closing the door securely behind me.
When I opened my hand, the bird did not fly away; she sat looking at me with her bright eyes. I removed the sticky spider-webs that covered her head and wings. Still, she made no attempt to fly. Perhaps she had been struggling against the window too long and was too tired? Or too thirsty?
As I carried her up the blackberry-lined path toward my car where I kept a water bottle, she began to move. I stopped, and she soon took wing but did not immediately fly away.
Hovering (悬停), she approached within six inches of my face. For a very long moment, this tiny creature looked into my eyes, turning her head from side to side. Then she flew quickly out of sight.
During the cookout, I told my hosts about the hummingbird incident. They promised to fix the window. As I was departing, my friends walked me to my car. I was standing by the car when a hummingbird flew to the center of our group and began hovering. She turned from person to person until she came to me. She again looked directly into my eyes, then let out a squeaking call and was gone. For a moment, all were speechless. Then someone said, “She must have come to say goodbye.”
注意:1. 续写词数应为 150 左右;
2. 请按如下格式在答题纸的相应位置作答。
A few weeks later, I went to the farm again.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________I was just about to leave when the hummingbird appeared.
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________3 . My students frequently ask me how I planned out my career to become president of Fidelity Investments. I always tell them, “There was no grand plan; I backed into my career one step at a time.” In this tough economy and ever-changing world, it is more important than ever to smartly evaluate each step in your career. To prepare for whatever surprises lie ahead, try to make choices today that will maximize your options in the future.
Gaining transferable (可转移的) knowledge begins with the choices you make at school. You want your education to provide you with the necessary skills and expertise to succeed in a wide variety of jobs.
Once you have finished your formal education, search for jobs that will allow you to further expand your transferable knowledge—to help you find your next job. Let’s say you take a job putting together airplane leases. Within a few years, you could become the world’s expert on the subject.
Remember gaining transferable knowledge is only one piece of the puzzle.
Of course, you can build your network to some degree without changing jobs.
A.You can make yourself more attractive. |
B.Gain transferable expertise and form close bonds with your colleagues. |
C.Your next step should help you expand your web of personal relationships. |
D.This later helped me evaluate and start business units throughout the world. |
E.You can attend conferences or participate in committees at trade associations. |
F.This means that you need to make smart choices about the courses you will follow. |
G.However, this narrow expertise probably won’t help you in any other line of work. |
4 . We may think we're a culture that gets rid of our worn technology at the first sight of something shiny and new, but a new study shows that we keep using our old devices(装置) well after they go out of style. That’s bad news for the environment — and our wallets — as these outdated devices consume much more energy than the newer ones that do the same things.
To figure out how much power these devices are using, Callie Babbitt and her colleagues at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York tracked the environmental costs for each product throughout its life — from when its minerals are mined to when we stop using the device. This method provided a readout for how home energy use has evolved since the early 1990s. Devices were grouped by generation — Desktop computers, basic mobile phones, and box-set TVs defined 1992. Digital cameras arrived on the scene in 1997. And MP3 players, smart phones, and LCD TVs entered homes in 2002, before tablets and e-readers showed up in 2007.
As we accumulated more devices, however, we didn't throw out our old ones. "The living-room television is replaced and gets planted in the kids' room, and suddenly one day, you have a TV in every room of the house," said one researcher. The average number of electronic devices rose from four per household in 1992 to 13 in 2007. We're not just keeping these old devices — we continue to use them. According to the analysis of Babbitt's team, old desktop monitors and box TVs with cathode ray tubes are the worst devices with their energy consumption and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions(排放)more than doubling during the 1992 to 2007 window.
So what's the solution(解决方案)? The team's data only went up to 2007, but the researchers also explored what would happen if consumers replaced old products with new electronics that serve more than one function, such as a tablet for word processing and TV viewing. They found that more on-demand entertainment viewing on tablets instead of TVs and desktop computers could cut energy consumption by 44%.
1. What does the author think of new devices?A.They are environment-friendly. | B.They are no better than the old. |
C.They cost more to use at home. | D.They go out of style quickly. |
A.To reduce the cost of minerals. |
B.To test the life cycle of a product. |
C.To update consumers on new technology. |
D.To find out electricity consumption of the devices. |
A.The box-set TV. | B.The tablet. |
C.The LCD TV. | D.The desktop computer. |
A.Stop using them. | B.Take them apart. |
C.Upgrade them. | D.Recycle them. |
5 . We’ve all been there: in a lift, in line at the bank or on an airplane, surrounded by people who are, like us, deeply focused on their smartphones or, worse, struggling with the uncomfortable silence.
What’s the problem? It’s possible that we all have compromised conversational intelligence. It’s more likely that none of us start a conversation because it’s awkward and challenging, or we think it’s annoying and unnecessary. But the next time you find yourself among strangers, consider that small talk is worth the trouble. Experts say it’s an invaluable social practice that results in big benefits.
Dismissing small talk as unimportant is easy, but we can’t forget that deep relationships wouldn’t
even exist if it weren’t for casual conversation. Small talk is the grease(润滑剂) for social communication, says Bernardo Carducci, director of the Shyness Research Institute at Indiana University Southeast. "Almost every great love story and each big business deal begins with small talk," he explains. "The key to successful small talk is learning how to connect with others, not just communicate with them."
In a 2014 study, Elizabeth Dunn, associate professor of psychology at UBC, invited people on their way into a coffee shop. One group was asked to seek out an interaction(互动) with its waiter; the other, to speak only when necessary. The results showed that those who chatted with their server reported significantly higher positive feelings and a better coffee shop experience. "It’s not that talking to the waiter is better than talking to your husband," says Dunn. "But interactions with peripheral(边缘的) members of our social network matter for our well-being also."
Dunn believes that people who reach out to strangers feel a significantly greater sense of belonging, a bond with others. Carducci believes developing such a sense of belonging starts with small talk. "Small talk is the basis of good manners," he says.
1. What phenomenon is described in the first paragraph?A.Addiction to smartphones. |
B.Inappropriate behaviours in public places. |
C.Absence of communication between strangers. |
D.Impatience with slow service. |
A.Showing good manners. | B.Relating to other people. |
C.Focusing on a topic. | D.Making business deals. |
A.It improves family relationships. | B.It raises people’s confidence. |
C.It matters as much as a formal talk. | D.It makes people feel good. |
A.Conversation Counts | B.Ways of Making Small Talk |
C.Benefits of Small Talk | D.Uncomfortable Silence |
1.表示感谢;
2.相关介绍;
3.对听众的要求。
注意:
1.词数80左右;
2.请在答题卡的相应位置作答。
Dear fellow students,
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
That’s all, thank you.
7 . How to Feel Connected
It's easy to feel disconnected from what is going on around you in today's fast-paced world.
Consider why you feel disconnected. Knowing what is making you feel disconnected can help you choose the best ways to address it.
Interact with people in person. Technology is a great way to stay in touch, but sometimes you need to spend time with other people in person.
Your loved ones could feel shy, so you may never know how to improve your relationship unless you ask the right questions. Asking them to open the doors can give you some insight on what you can do. Learning this information can help to strengthen your bond.
Show your commitment to them. Simply showing up and being there for your loved ones says a lot about how much you value your relationships. Putting in the time shows them that you are committed and want to stay connected.
Show appreciation. A simple “thank you” goes a very long way. Unfortunately, it is something that people who are close often take for granted. Telling someone you appreciate their time, love, and efforts can strengthen your bond and help you to become more connected.
A.Ask others what they need from you. |
B.Sometimes you can feel isolated and distant from the ones you love. |
C.Be brave to express your love. |
D.Reach out to people to schedule a time to get together. |
E.Attending family events, or simply visiting someone once a week can help to strengthen your relationship and keep it strong. |
F.Targeting your efforts toward those issues allows you to close that distance more effectively. |
G.You can have a gift delivered to friends on special occasions. |
8 . “It will be marvelous. It will be spiritual.” This is the
Back on the ground, Sir Richard called the experience “magical”. He may have
The two tycoons (大亨) are among a growing number of
For now, Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic will offer
Even this 4-minute suborbital travels have a(n)
Another challenge — and the industry’s biggest remaining uncertainty — relates to
A.modest | B.demanding | C.motivational | D.unclear |
A.obligation | B.commitment | C.requirement | D.survey |
A.felt ashamed of | B.kept an eye on | C.felt content with | D.got upset with |
A.optimists | B.opponents | C.experts | D.objectors |
A.thanks to | B.but for | C.apart from | D.in spite of |
A.impossible | B.undoubted | C.probable | D.favorable |
A.long-lasting | B.inexpensive | C.automatic | D.brief |
A.On the contrary | B.What’s more | C.In the long run | D.Above all |
A.shortcoming | B.limitation | C.advantage | D.appeal |
A.profitable | B.uneconomic | C.eco-friendly | D.globalized |
A.predictable | B.essential | C.irrelevant | D.uncertain |
A.development | B.security | C.stability | D.novelty |
A.particularly | B.critically | C.precisely | D.unforeseeably |
A.initiated | B.drafted | C.modified | D.suspended |
A.brave | B.abandon | C.steer | D.pause |
9 . I have frequently taught Research Methods and Design to college students at several institutions. I love teaching this course. One reason, of course, is that I enjoy thinking about research methodology (方法学) and sharing it with others. The other reason, however, is the obvious impact that it has on students. Every term, one (if not more) student tells me how taking this course has affected him/her: “I used to just read articles and believe what they said, but now I find myself asking ‘Is this true? How do they know? Is this a well designed study?” That is what I want the students to achieve in this course.
This brings to mind something written by Dorothy L. Sayers in 1948. One of her books, The Lost Tools of Learning speaks to Sayers’ thoughts on education. “By teaching our young men and women to read, we have left them at the mercy of the printed words. By the invention of the film and the radio,we have made certain that no dislike for reading shall protect them from the constant battery of words, words, words. They do not know what the words mean: they are victims to words in their emotions instead of being the masters of them in their intelligence.”
We are well past the 1940s, but her observation is still relevant. Sayers’ point is well taken. In the world of 24-hour news and social media that often resembles (类似) the Wild West, the ability to carry out evaluations has never been more important. In order to resist the distortions with which we are constantly bombed in the media, as well as be able to present a persuasive argument, we must be able to reason well, and think and give a judgement carefully.
When my students begin the Research Methods and Design course, they are generally not content to read all those research article I give. However, by the end of the course, they are excited about their newly obtained abilities.
1. What is the author’s course goal for her students?A.Thinking critically. | B.Reading deeply. |
C.Designing studies well. | D.Questioning themselves. |
A.It was boring. | B.It was worrying. |
C.It was conventional. | D.It was useless. |
A.Popular news. | B.Various evaluations. |
C.Persuasive arguments. | D.Misleading information. |
A.To review a book. | B.To introduce a writer. |
C.To suggest a practical skill. | D.To criticize social media. |
10 . The environmental practices of big businesses are shaped by a fundamental fact that offends our sense of justice. A business may maximize the amount of money it makes by damaging the environment and hurting people. When government regulation is effective, and the public is environmentally aware, environmentally clean big businesses may out-compete dirty ones, but the reverse is likely to be true if government regulation is ineffective and the public doesn’t care.
It is easy to blame a business for helping itself by hurting other people. But blaming alone is unlikely to produce change. It ignores the fact that businesses are not charities but profit-making companies, and they are under obligation to maximize profits for shareholders by legal means.
Our blaming of businesses also ignores the ultimate responsibility of the public for creating the conditions that let a business profit through destructive environmental policies. In the long run, it is the public, either directly or through its politicians, that has the power to make such destructive policies unprofitable and illegal, and to make sustainable environmental policies profitable.
The public can do that by accusing businesses of harming them. The public may also make their opinion felt by choosing to buy sustainably harvested products; by preferring their governments to award valuable contracts to businesses with a good environmental track record; and by pressing their governments to pass and enforce laws and regulations requiring good environmental practices.
In turn, big businesses can exert powerful pressure on any suppliers that might ignore public or government pressure. For instance, after the US public became concerned about the spread of a disease, transmitted to humans through infected meat, the US government introduced rules demanding that the meat industry abandon practices associated with the risk of the disease spreading. But the meat packers refused to follow these, claiming that they would be too expensive to obey. However, when a fast-food company made the same demands after customer purchases of its hamburgers dropped, the meat industry followed immediately. The public’s task is therefore to identify which links in the supply chain are sensitive to public pressure.
Some readers may be disappointed or outraged that I place the ultimate responsibility for business practices harming the public on the public itself. I also believe that the public must accept the necessity for higher prices for products to cover the added costs of sound environmental practices. My views may seem to ignore the belief that businesses should act in accordance with moral principles even if this leads to a reduction in their profits. But I think we have to recognize that, throughout human history, government regulation has arisen precisely because it was found that not only did moral principles need to be made explicit, they also needed to be enforced.
My conclusion is not a moralistic one about who is right or wrong, admirable or selfish. I believe that changes in public attitudes are essential for changes in businesses’ environmental practices.
1. The main idea of Paragraph 3 is that environmental damage__________.A.is the result of ignorance of the public |
B.requires political action if it is to be stopped |
C.can be prevented by the action of ordinary people |
D.can only be stopped by educating business leaders |
A.reduce their own individual impact on the environment |
B.learn more about the impact of business on the environment |
C.raise awareness of the effects of specific environmental disasters |
D.influence the environmental policies of businesses and governments |
A.Meat packers stopped supplying hamburgers to fast-food chains. |
B.Meat packers persuaded the government to reduce their expenses. |
C.A fast-food company forced their meat suppliers to follow the law. |
D.A fast-food company encouraged the government to introduce regulations. |
A.Will the world survive the threat caused by big businesses? |
B.How can big businesses be encouraged to be less driven by profit? |
C.What environmental dangers are caused by the greed of businesses? |
D.Are big businesses to blame for the damage they cause to the environment? |