7 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.

This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.

But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.

In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.

As Hurricane Lan bore down on Florida, many residents who stayed put found themselves unable to leave even if they tried. For hours they were forced to fight heavy winds and attempt to escape flooding inside long-loved homes that had become frightening, deadly traps. Within days, around 100 deaths in the state would be attributed to the hurricane, many of them were older residents who drowned.

When the water slipped in under the door of their home, it was just a glimmer on the floor, a sign that it was time to go. It was Wednesday, Sept.28, around noon, and Bishop woke up her two brothers, who had been resting after lunch. She pulled the wheelchair up to the oldest, Russell, 67. Her other brother, Todd, 63, could manage with a walker.

Both men had been born with cerebral palsy (脑瘫), and their mental development was like that of a young child. About 10 years ago, they started showing signs of Parkinson’s disease. But they found joy in their surroundings. Todd liked collecting cans at the beach. Russell loved riding the bus and going to parks. Bishop, 61, was their lifeline, their little sister who had long felt an obligation to keep them safe.

“We’ve got to get going!” she shouted to them. She went to open the front door. It would not move. The weight of the water on the other side had made it shut. She rushed to try the door to the garage. It, too, was stuck. That’s when the house began to flood. It went from ankle-deep to knee-deep in less than five minutes. Bishop knew that there was no way out.

Now Bishop and her brothers were trapped. At 12:34 p.m., she called 911 but couldn’t get through. There was no one she could get in touch with. To try her fortune, she texted a neighbor, Walters, who was always there when neighbors were in need, “Water’s coming in.” Around her, she could hear the dining room hutch (餐具柜) tipping and crashing, the china breaking, the refrigerator toppling over.

The only way to go was up, so Bishop guided her two bothers to the stairs.

Bishop sank into despair, but she noticed it seemed water stopped coming in.

The Daffodils

by William Wordsworth

I wandered lonely as a cloud,

That floats on high o’er vales and hills,

When all at once I saw a crowd,

A host, of golden daffodils (水仙花);

Beside the lake, beneath the trees,

Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.

Continuous as the stars that shine,

And twinkle on the milky way,

They stretched in never-ending line,

Along the margin of a bay:

Ten thousand saw I at a glance,

Tossing their heads in sprightly dance.

The waves beside them danced; but they

Outdid the sparkling waves in glee:

A poet could not but be gay,

In such a jocund (欢乐的) company:

I gazed — and gazed — but little thought,

What wealth the show to me had brought:

For oft, when on my couch I lie,

In vacant or in pensive (忧愁的) mood,

They flash upon that inward eye,

Which is the bliss of solitude (孤寂):

And then my heart with pleasure fills,

And dances with the daffodils.