1 . On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1. What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?| A．The methods of estimation. | B．The underlying logic of the effect. |
| C．The causes of people’s errors. | D．The design of Galton’s experiment. |
| A．the crowds were relatively small | B．there were occasional underestimates |
| C．individuals did not communicate | D．estimates were not fully independent |
| A．The size of the groups. | B．The dominant members. |
| C．The discussion process. | D．The individual estimates. |
| A．Unclear. | B．Dismissive. | C．Doubtful. | D．Approving. |
2 . Hundreds of scientists, writers and academics sounded a warning to humanity in an open letter published last December: Policymakers and the rest of us must engage openly with the risk of global collapse. Researchers in many areas have projected the widespread collapse as “a credible scenario(情景) this century”.
A survey of scientists found that extreme weather events, food insecurity, and freshwater shortages might create global collapse. Of course, if you are a non-human species, collapse is well underway.
The call for public engagement with the unthinkable is especially germane in this moment of still-uncontrolled pandemic and economic crises in the world's most technologically advanced nations. Not very long ago, it was also unthinkable that a virus would shut down nations and that safety nets would be proven so disastrously lacking in flexibility.
The international scholars’ warning letter doesn't say exactly what collapse will look like or when it might happen. Collapseology, the study of collapse, is more concerned with identifying trends and with them the dangers of everyday civilization. Among the signatories(签署者) of the warning was Bob Johnson, the originator of the “ecological footprint” concept, which measures the total amount of environmental input needed to maintain a given lifestyle. With the current footprint of humanity, “it seems that global collapse is certain to happen in some form, possibly within a decade, certainly within this century,” Johnson said in an email.
“Only if we discuss the consequences of our biophysical limits,” the December warning letter says, “can we have the hope to reduce their speed, severity and harm”. And yet messengers of the coming disturbance are likely to be ignored. We all want to hope things will turn out fine. As a poet wrote,
Man is a victim of dope(麻醉品)
In the incurable form of hope.
The hundreds of scholars who signed the letter are intent(执着) on quieting hope that ignores preparedness. “Let's look directly into the issue of collapse,” they say, “and deal with the terrible possibilities of what we see there to make the best of a troubling future.”
1. What does the underlined word “germane” in Paragraph 3 probably mean?| A．Scientific. | B．Credible. |
| C．Original. | D．Relevant. |
| A．worried | B．puzzled |
| C．surprised | D．scared |
| A．The signatories may change the biophysical limits. |
| B．The author agrees with the message of the poem. |
| C．The issue of collapse is being prioritized. |
| D．The global collapse is well underway. |
注意：请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上。每个空格只填一个单词。
The Cost of Thinking
Despite their many differences, all human beings share several defining characteristics, such as large brains and the ability to walk upright on two legs.
The first unique human characteristic is that humans have extraordinarily large brains compared with other animals. It seems obvious that evolution should select for larger brains. Mammals(哺乳动物) weighing sixty kilograms have an average brain size of 200 cm2. Modern man has a brain averaging 1200-1400 cm2. We are so fond of our high intelligence that we assume that when it comes to brain power, more must be better. Unfortunately, that is not the case.
The fact is that a huge brain is a huge drain—consumption of energy—on the body. It’s not easy to carry around, especially when boxed inside a massive skull(倾骨). It’s even harder to provide energy. In modern man, the brain accounts for about 2-3% of total body weight, but it consumes 25% of the body’s energy when the body is at rest. By comparison, the brains of apes(类人猿) require only 8% of rest-time energy. Early humans paid for their large brains in two ways. Firstly, they spent more time in search of food. Secondly, their muscles grew smaller and weaker. It’s hardly an obvious conclusion that this is a good way to survive. A chimpanzee(黑猩猩) can’t win an argument with a modern man, but it can tear the man apart like a rag doll.
Another unique human characteristic is that we walk upright. Standing up, it’s easier to find food or enemies. In addition, their arms that are unnecessary for moving around are freed for other purposes, like throwing stones or signaling. As a result, humans can perform very complex tasks with their hands.
Yet walking upright has its disadvantage. The bone structure of our ancestors developed for millions of years to support a creature that walked on all fours and has a relatively small head. Adjusting to an upright position was quite a challenge, especially when the bones had to support an extra-large skull. Humankind paid for its broad vision and skillful hands backaches and painful necks.
We assume that a large brain makes huge advantages. It seems obvious that these have made humankind the most powerful animal on earth. But humans enjoyed all of these advantages for a full 2 million years during which they remained weak and marginal creatures. Thus humans who lived a million years ago, despite their big brains and sharp stone tools, lived in constant fear of meat-eating animals.
The Cost of Thinking | |
Introduction | • Large brains for their bodies and the ability to walk upright are two |
The | • The larger brains may not be better because of the cost. • The big brains make it harder for the body to move around and consume more energy. • The animal brain requires less • Large human brains consume more food, and weaken muscles. |
The | • Walking upright makes it easy to find food or • Freed hands can serve some |
| • Walking upright challenges the human bone structure, and • Walking upright results in | |
Conclusion | • With a large brain, human beings • Weak and marginal, human beings remained |
Haze Mabry, who has worked as a school keeper for thirteen years, walks into the school building every day and empties garbage cans, wipes down bathrooms and mops wet messes in the hallways.
Last Friday, after he arrived at the school, instead of finding garbage to clean up, he found almost 800 students lining the hallways with handmade cards, blowing noisemakers and singing a full-throated happy birthday to him. It was his 80th. As he walked the long hallway, some popped out of line to hug him. They handed him so many cards that they filled several large boxes. Touched by their enthusiastic expression of affection, Mabry thanked them all. “They’re like my children,” Mabry said.
On a regular day, students at the school sometimes come up to him to say they’re not feeling well or other times to tell him about something that happened at break. He knows most of the kids at the school, but can’t name each one. Some of them make him know them. Like Faith, who often forgets her backpack in the cafeteria, and Lucy, who just wants a hug.
“He won’t brag(夸耀) on himself, but it doesn’t matter what he’s doing or where he is, he will always stop what he’s doing to take care of a child if that child is having a bad day. If a child approaches him, he will pause to give that child his undivided attention. He’s the most loved one in this building,” said Lori Gilreath, a reading teacher.
Mabry works circles around all the students, cleaning up messes others don’t want to touch. He doesn’t expect a lot. Mabry said he hadn’t planned to do much for his milestone birthday, so he was happy the students had prepared the surprise celebration.
Over the weekend, he worked through the piles of handmade cards at his house. One card from a student stood out to him. It read: “Mr. Haze, you are my sunshine.”
1. What is Mabry’s daily work as a school keeper？（no more than 5 words）2. How did the students celebrate Mabry’s birthday？（no more than 15 words）
3. What does the underlined word in Paragraph 2 probably mean？（1 word）
4. Why is Mabry’s presence at the school important？（no more than 10 words）
5. Who is the “sunshine” in your life？Please explain. （no more than 20 words）
注意：请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上。每个空格只填一个单词。
How Arts Promote Our Economy
When most people think of the arts, they imagine the end product, the beautiful painting, a wonderful piece of music, or an award-winning performance in the theater. But arts groups bring broader value to our communities. The economic impact of the arts is often overlooked and badly judged.
The arts create jobs that help develop the economy. Any given performance takes a tour bus full of artists, technical experts, managers, musicians, or writers to create an appealing piece of art. These people earn a living wage for their professional knowledge and skills.
Another group of folks is needed to help market the event. “If you build it they will come” is a misleading belief. Painters, digital media experts, photographers, booking agents and promoters are hired to sell tickets and promote the event. According to the Dallas Area Cultural Advocacy Coalition, arts agencies employ more than 10,000 people as full-or part-time employees or independent contractors.
A successful arts neighborhood creates a ripple effect（连锁反应）throughout a community. In 2005, when the Bishop Arts Theatre was donated to our town, the location was considered a poor area of town. After investing more than $1 million in reconstructing the building, we began producing a full season of theater performances, jazz concerts, and year-round arts education programs in 2008. Nearly 40 percent of jazz lovers live outside of the Dallas city limits and drive or fly in to enjoy an evening in the Bishop Arts District.
No doubt the theater has contributed to the area’s development and economic growth. Today, there are galleries, studios, restaurants and newly built work spaces where neighbors share experiences, where there is renewed life and energy. In this way, arts and culture also serve as a public good.
TeCo Theatrical Productions Inc. made use of Bloomberg’s investment of $35,000 to get nearly $400,000 in public and private sector support during the two-year period. Further, Dallas arts and arts-based businesses produce $298 for every dollar the city spends on arts programming and facilities. In Philadelphia, a metro area smaller than Dallas, the arts have an economic impact of almost $3 million and support 44,000 jobs, 80 percent of which actually lie outside the arts industry, including accountants, marketers, construction workers, hotel managers, printers, and other kinds of art workers.
The arts are efficient economic drivers and when they are supported, the entire small-business community benefits.
It is wrong to assume arts groups cannot make a profit. But in order to stay in business, arts groups must produce returns. If you are a student studying the arts, chances are you have been ill-advised to have a plan B. But those who truly understand the economic impact and can work to change the patterns can create a wide range of career possibilities.
Arts as an economic driver | Our communities |
Arts activity demands a(n) ★Artists make a living through their creative work. ★Others get paid by marketing the event. | |
Arts have a gradually spreading ★Besides tickets, some jazz lovers will pay their ★Arts contribute to cultural development when people gather together to share their experience and renew their energy. | |
Investment in arts could produce potential ★TeCo used a $35,000 art investment to attract an overall support of $400,000. ★In Dallas, one dollar invested in arts could harvest and extraordinary return of nearly $300. ★In Philadelphia the arts have created about 35,000 job opportunities for workers | |
Art students making a good living | With these |
6 . We may think we're a culture that gets rid of our worn technology at the first sight of something shiny and new, but a new study shows that we keep using our old devices(装置) well after they go out of style. That’s bad news for the environment — and our wallets — as these outdated devices consume much more energy than the newer ones that do the same things.
To figure out how much power these devices are using, Callie Babbitt and her colleagues at the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York tracked the environmental costs for each product throughout its life — from when its minerals are mined to when we stop using the device. This method provided a readout for how home energy use has evolved since the early 1990s. Devices were grouped by generation — Desktop computers, basic mobile phones, and box-set TVs defined 1992. Digital cameras arrived on the scene in 1997. And MP3 players, smart phones, and LCD TVs entered homes in 2002, before tablets and e-readers showed up in 2007.
As we accumulated more devices, however, we didn't throw out our old ones. "The living-room television is replaced and gets planted in the kids' room, and suddenly one day, you have a TV in every room of the house," said one researcher. The average number of electronic devices rose from four per household in 1992 to 13 in 2007. We're not just keeping these old devices — we continue to use them. According to the analysis of Babbitt's team, old desktop monitors and box TVs with cathode ray tubes are the worst devices with their energy consumption and contribution to greenhouse gas emissions（排放）more than doubling during the 1992 to 2007 window.
So what's the solution（解决方案）? The team's data only went up to 2007, but the researchers also explored what would happen if consumers replaced old products with new electronics that serve more than one function, such as a tablet for word processing and TV viewing. They found that more on-demand entertainment viewing on tablets instead of TVs and desktop computers could cut energy consumption by 44%.
1. What does the author think of new devices?| A．They are environment-friendly. | B．They are no better than the old. |
| C．They cost more to use at home. | D．They go out of style quickly. |
| A．To reduce the cost of minerals. |
| B．To test the life cycle of a product. |
| C．To update consumers on new technology. |
| D．To find out electricity consumption of the devices. |
| A．The box-set TV. | B．The tablet. |
| C．The LCD TV. | D．The desktop computer. |
| A．Stop using them. | B．Take them apart. |
| C．Upgrade them. | D．Recycle them. |
7 . We’ve all been there: in a lift, in line at the bank or on an airplane, surrounded by people who are, like us, deeply focused on their smartphones or, worse, struggling with the uncomfortable silence.
What’s the problem? It’s possible that we all have compromised conversational intelligence. It’s more likely that none of us start a conversation because it’s awkward and challenging, or we think it’s annoying and unnecessary. But the next time you find yourself among strangers, consider that small talk is worth the trouble. Experts say it’s an invaluable social practice that results in big benefits.
Dismissing small talk as unimportant is easy, but we can’t forget that deep relationships wouldn’t
even exist if it weren’t for casual conversation. Small talk is the grease(润滑剂) for social communication, says Bernardo Carducci, director of the Shyness Research Institute at Indiana University Southeast. ＂Almost every great love story and each big business deal begins with small talk,＂ he explains. ＂The key to successful small talk is learning how to connect with others, not just communicate with them.＂
In a 2014 study, Elizabeth Dunn, associate professor of psychology at UBC, invited people on their way into a coffee shop. One group was asked to seek out an interaction(互动) with its waiter; the other, to speak only when necessary. The results showed that those who chatted with their server reported significantly higher positive feelings and a better coffee shop experience. ＂It’s not that talking to the waiter is better than talking to your husband,＂ says Dunn. ＂But interactions with peripheral(边缘的) members of our social network matter for our well-being also.＂
Dunn believes that people who reach out to strangers feel a significantly greater sense of belonging, a bond with others. Carducci believes developing such a sense of belonging starts with small talk. ＂Small talk is the basis of good manners,＂ he says.
1. What phenomenon is described in the first paragraph?| A．Addiction to smartphones. |
| B．Inappropriate behaviours in public places. |
| C．Absence of communication between strangers. |
| D．Impatience with slow service. |
| A．Showing good manners. | B．Relating to other people. |
| C．Focusing on a topic. | D．Making business deals. |
| A．It improves family relationships. | B．It raises people’s confidence. |
| C．It matters as much as a formal talk. | D．It makes people feel good. |
| A．Conversation Counts | B．Ways of Making Small Talk |
| C．Benefits of Small Talk | D．Uncomfortable Silence |
8 . 请认真阅读下面短文，并根据所读内容在文章后表格中的空格里填入
注意：请将答案写在答题卡上相应题号的横线上。每个空格只填一个单词。
Population Change
Why is the world’s population growing? The answer is not what you might think. The reason for the explosion is not that people have been reproducing like rabbits, but that people have stopped dropping dead like flies. In 1900, people died at the average age of 30. By 2000 the average age was 65. But while increasing health was a typical feature of the 20th century, declining birth rate could be a defining one of the 21st.
Statistics show that the average number of births per woman has fallen from 4.9 in the early 1960s to 2.5 nowadays. Furthermore, around 50% of the world’s population live in regions where the figure is now below the replacement level (i.e. 2.1 births per woman) and almost all developed nations are experiencing sub-replacement birth rate. You might think that developing nations would make up the loss (especially since 80% of the world’s people now live in such nations), but you’d be wrong. Declining birth rate is a major problem in many developing regions too, which might cause catastrophic global shortages of work force within a few decades.
A great decline in young work force is likely to occur in China, for instance. What does it imply? First, China needs to undergo rapid economic development before a population decline hits the country. Second, if other factors such as technology remain constant, economic growth and material expectations will fall well below recent standards and this could invite trouble.
Russia is another country with population problems that could break its economic promise. Since 1992 the number of people dying has been bigger than that of those being born by a massive 50%. Indeed official figures suggest the country has shrunk by 5% since 1993 and people in Russia live a shorter life now than those in 1961. Why is this occurring? Nobody is quite sure, but poor diet and above all long-time alcoholism have much to do with it. If current trends don’t bend, Russia’s population will be about the size of Yemen’s by the year 2050.
In the north of India, the population is booming due to high birth rates, but in the south, where most economic development is taking place, birth rate is falling rapidly. In a further twist, birth rate is highest in poorly educated rural areas and lowest in highly educated urban areas. In total, 25% of India’s working-age population has no education. In 2030, a sixth of the country’s potential work force could be totally uneducated.
One solution is obviously to import foreign workers via immigration. As for the USA, it is almost unique among developed nations in having a population that is expected to grow by 20% from 2010—2030. Moreover, the USA has a track record of successfully accepting immigrants. As a result it’s likely to see a rise in the size of its working-age population and to witness strong economic growth over the longer term.
71
9 . I read somewhere that we spend a full third of our lives waiting. But where are we doing all of this waiting, and what does it mean to an impatient society like ours? To understand the issue, let’s take a look at three types of “waits”.
The very purest form of waiting is the Watched-Pot Wait. It is without doubt the most annoying of all. Take filling up the kitchen sink(洗碗池) as an example. There is absolutely nothing you can do while this is going on but keep both eyes fixed on the sink until it’s full. During these waits, the brain slips away from the body and wanders about until the water runs over the edge of the counter and onto your socks. This kind of wait makes the waiter helpless and mindless.
A cousin to the Watched-Pot Wait is the Forced Wait. This one requires a bit of discipline. Properly preparing packaged noodle soup required a Forced Wait. Directions are very specific. “Bring three cups of water to boil, add mix, simmer three minutes, remove from heat, let stand five minutes.”I have my doubts that anyone has actually followed the procedures strictly. After all, Forced Waiting requires patience.
Perhaps the most powerful type of waiting is the Lucky-Break Wait. This type of wait is unusual in that it is for the most part voluntary. Unlike the Forced Wait, which is also voluntary, waiting for your lucky break does not necessarily mean that it will happen.
Turning one’s life into a waiting game requires faith and hope, and is strictly for the optimists among us. On the surface it seems as ridiculous as following the directions on soup mixes, but the Lucky-Break Wait well serves those who are willing to do it. As long as one doesn’t come to rely on it, wishing for a few good things to happen never hurts anybody.
We certainly do spend a good deal of our time waiting. The next time you’re standing at the sink waiting for it to fill while cooking noodle soup that you’ll have to eat until a large bag of cash falls out of the sky, don’t be desperate. You’re probably just as busy as the next guy.
1. While doing a Watched-Pot Wait, we tend to ___________.| A．keep ourselves busy |
| B．get absent-minded |
| C．grow anxious |
| D．stay focused |
| A．The Forced Wait requires some self-control. |
| B．The Forced Wait makes people passive. |
| C．The Watched-Pot Wait needs directions. |
| D．The Watched-Pot Wait engages body and brain. |
| A．It is less voluntary than the Forced Wait. |
| B．It doesn’t always bring the desired result. |
| C．It is more fruitful than the Forced Wait. |
| D．It doesn’t give people faith and hope. |
| A．Take it seriously. |
| B．Don’t rely on others. |
| C．Do something else. |
| D．Don’t lose heart. |
| A．exploring various causes of “waits”. |
| B．describing detailed processes of “waits”. |
| C．analyzing different categories of “waits” |
| D．revealing frustrating consequences of “waits” |
10 . Every animal sleeps, but the reason for this has remained foggy. When lab rats are not allowed to sleep, they die within a month.
One idea is that sleep helps us strengthen new memories.
Support is growing for a theory that sleep evolved so that connections between neurons(神经元) in the brain can be weakened overnight, making room for fresh memories to form the next day.
Now we have the most direct evidence yet that he is right.
If Tononi’s theory is right, it would explain why, when we miss a night’s, we find it harder the next day to concentrate and learn new information — our brains may have smaller room for new experiences.
Their research also suggests how we may build lasting memories over time even though the synapses become thinner. The team discovered that some synapses seem to be protected and stayed the same size.
| A．We should also try to sleep well the night before. |
| B．It’s as if the brain is preserving its most important memories. |
| C．Similarly, when people go for a few days without sleeping, they get sick. |
| D．The processes take place to stop our brains becoming loaded with memories. |
| E．That’s why students do better in tests if they get a chance to sleep after learning. |
| F．“Sleep is the price we pay for learning,” says Giulio Tononi, who developed the idea. |
| G．Tononi’s team measured the size of these connections, or synapses, in the brains of 12 mice. |
