解题方法
1 . 踢毽子在我国流传很广,有着悠久的历史,是一项传统民间体育活动.某次体育课上,甲、乙、1丙、丁四人一起踢毽子.毽子在四人中传递,先从甲开始,甲传给乙、丙、丁的概率均为
;当乙接到毽子时,乙传给甲、丙、丁的概率分别为
,
,
;当丙接到毽子时,丙传给甲、乙、丁的概率分别为
,
,
;当丁接到毽子时,丁传给甲、乙、丙的概率分别为
,
,
.假设毽子一直没有掉地上,经过
次传毽子后,毽子被甲、乙、丙、丁接到的概率分别为
,
,
,
,已知
.
(1)记丁在前2次传毽子中,接到毽子的次数为
,求
的分布列;
(2)证明
为等比数列,并判断经过150次传毽子后甲接到毽子的概率与
的大小.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5e6486784415f3537c9a13556c05d893.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5e6486784415f3537c9a13556c05d893.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5e6486784415f3537c9a13556c05d893.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/96abfe2da27a63e6affb19a0c80236d9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/686ece75006ad358f23314dc8a246e11.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c59e7c7a84a4bdb959e95536d0404ceb.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/82e260b088f071983f254ce8f5163fcd.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d1bae03ee4ac75dacfb026290e4207dd.png)
(1)记丁在前2次传毽子中,接到毽子的次数为
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
(2)证明
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ecbf26c8dca34c3a2742d1b5643469a6.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/56d266a04f3dc7483eddbc26c5e487db.png)
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