1 . 2015—2019年,中国社会消费品零售额占GDP的比重超过4种,2020年后,中国社会消费品零售额占GDP的比重逐年下降.下表为2018—2022年中国社会消费品零售额(单位:万亿元)及其占GDP的比重y(单位:%)的数据,其中2018—2022年对应的年份代码x依次为1~5.
年份代码x | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
社会消费品零售额 | 37.8 | 40.8 | 39.2 | 44.1 | 44.0 |
社会消费品零售额占 GDP的比重y/% | 41.3 | 41.5 | 39.0 | 38.6 | 36.7 |
(1)由上表数据,是否可用一元线性回归模型拟合y与x的关系,请用相关系数加以说明.
(2)请建立y关于x的一元线性回归方程.
(3)从2018—2022年中国社会消费品零售额这5个数据中随机抽取2个数据.若抽取的2个数据中至少有1个数据大于40.0,求这2个数据恰好有1个数据不小于44.0的概率.
附:,
,
,
,
相关系数.
对于一组数据,其一元线性回归直线
的斜率和截距的最小二乘估计公式分别为
,
.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9516669d8c8c7ceda11b27a71a987243.png)
x | -2 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
y | 5 | 4 | m | 2 | 1 |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e55aa0a20848c37c1892c567b2315e04.png)
A.3 | B.2.8 | C.2 | D.1 |
年份 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
编号![]() | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
企业总数量![]() | 50 | 78 | 124 | 121 | 137 | 352 |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b8dd7bfa66cda5972dde24f1e8f5c590.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d053b14c8588eee2acbbe44fc37a6886.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/81dea63b8ce3e51adf66cf7b9982a248.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d053b14c8588eee2acbbe44fc37a6886.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/81dea63b8ce3e51adf66cf7b9982a248.png)
(2)为了促进公司间的合作与发展,区块链联合总部决定进行一次信息化技术比赛,邀请甲、乙、丙三家区块链公司参赛.比赛规则如下:①每场比赛有两个公司参加,并决出胜负;②每场比赛获胜的公司与未参加此场比赛的公司进行下一场的比赛;③在比赛中,若有一个公司首先获胜两场,则本次比赛结束,该公司获得此次信息化比赛的“优胜公司”.已知在每场比赛中,甲胜乙的概率为
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/eac97e6740365c85ad857aff85cefbe5.png)
参考数据:
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2d6a5a2239f4b5df4c4ef762ad5da044.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7e621e35294684155ef57b9c7517c098.png)
参考公式:对于一组数据
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9bd73c6f7a5ed33663927fe8738b72cf.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/1db6103cb0f1d2bd6b19235d53ee7e98.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5902a9f6e5edb616a541d31bee9bede9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/aa088a4729226b696c536845791d4c02.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/1f988ef8f87925047d752423e34b8e31.png)
![]() | ![]() | ![]() | ![]() |
73.5 | 3.85 | ![]() | ![]() |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d439eb8bf61f1df21f80c0e5b783cd5d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/736b28b70406720a0f985b3201c5df83.png)
(1)根据散点图判断,①
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d6a5b1c19e4c57f1d259f8269e551c64.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e696afe0ae58f9f23d6a51429f18d529.png)
(2)已知该茶水温度降至
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ca9835a4c1cbdb1311f0cd02710210b2.png)
附:(1)对于一组数据
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c257f4912591a2435bd86b3204aa4321.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c80c790950c308c359ab725f2798e988.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a0ee4a1ed668212accf7f1088c9f108b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9e64c97bf5f60d0cb9930c4b76b4ed3b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9a58f1e6f740b0c68c9984c05e00ba3e.png)
(2)参考数据:
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/0d66878446d29d6b33d7e388e83e195c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/552723416be5efdad31eaede321c8b0a.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a189dac0076489cf7fb01c86cf70f1ec.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a50101047632b94dcd5cf8035b093cc5.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f12a76edbb3e98e3ff41c03401769d1c.png)
年份 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
年份代号x | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
游客总人数y | 3.3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 8.4 |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2e9b0f5f44abbc6544a2f672b025b013.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ef132a707edc0b34af1198cdd6eb634a.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3f6f17bc385bafb37e8f964e5eb99cd0.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2dceb71f1e3e65e463c9325121866a1d.png)
(1)根据
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2e9b0f5f44abbc6544a2f672b025b013.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3f6f17bc385bafb37e8f964e5eb99cd0.png)
(2)为了检验两种模型的预测效果,对两种模型作残差分析得到:
模型一:总偏差平方和
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7598444f932345f0d0c1302026b5f64e.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bbf5a0b7dc47d8e1479f754591b09b32.png)
模型二:总偏差平方和
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3429484f78f343c2a2a68e92984eff80.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8cabe388e33239ed61d9a28ee3e4ca5a.png)
用
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4c85067c53e936ef32da818efe04bdbb.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4c85067c53e936ef32da818efe04bdbb.png)
(3)根据2020年至2022年游客总人数y的数据建立线性回归模型三,求回归方程
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c9fce9427c9b17e4d3cda0c3ff3e2e14.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c9fce9427c9b17e4d3cda0c3ff3e2e14.png)
参考公式:
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c563f2112f3e912cee025625ae2d7f34.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/81ec30e9316c79d956b7c9a483a91632.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7ebff20f21ae41fd8d1f1e3145895842.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/929ef3bed0a4bdd22f39e036506dc481.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/762338fed3801d82b6ea627798518c3c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/97ea8f47d8d8d9e1832d52b1c7425450.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8bc4b176d13f7b6a30b55d726159f1b5.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4d0631cd7fb7722810c9f803e8d9cbd2.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ef046c85a536174bec951a53d9f60b33.png)
单价 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.8 |
销量 | 84 | 83 | 78 | m |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d053b14c8588eee2acbbe44fc37a6886.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/81dea63b8ce3e51adf66cf7b9982a248.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d3c096b7dd365b8283baf3c15c129a1f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f3a723fae777686622001a366bc0cfa9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bdaa19de263700a15fcf213d64a8cd57.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a6c57bbef89a37f1a3808c0ceeac0c22.png)
零件个数x | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
加工时间y/min | 62 | 68 | 75 | 81 | 89 | 95 | 102 | 108 | 115 | 122 |
(2)如果y与x之间具有相关关系,求回归直线方程.
(3)据此估计加工110个零件所用的时间.
8 . 如图是M市某爱国主义教育基地宣传栏中标题为“2015~2022年基地接待青少年人次”的统计图.根据该统计图提供的信息解决下列问题.
①参考数据:
0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
90 | 330 |
②参考公式:对于一组数据,其回归直线
的斜率和截距的最小二乘法公式分别为:
.
(1)求M市爱国主义教育基地所统计的8年中接待青少年人次的平均值和中位数;
(2)由统计图可看出,从2019年开始,M市爱国主义教育基地接待青少年的人次呈直线上升趋势,请你用线性回归分析的方法预测2024年基地接待青少年的人次.
9 . 数学兴趣小组对具有线性相关的两个变量x和y进行了统计分析,得到了下表:
x | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 |
y | a | 2 | b | c | 6 |
并由表中数据求得y关于x的回归方程为,若a,b,c成等差数列,则
便利店编号 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
销售额x/万元 | 30 | 60 | 45 | 80 | 89 |
利润额y/万元 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 5.3 |
(2)若销售额和利润额具有线性相关关系,试计算利润额y与销售额x的经验回归直线方程.