5 . Heads or Tails?

Careful: It’s not 50-50

The phrase “coin toss” is a classic synonym for randomness. But since the 18th century, mathematicians have _________ that even fair coins tend to land on one side slightly more often than the other. Proving this tiny bias, _________, would require hundreds of thousands of carefully recorded coin flips, making laboratory tests a logistical (后勤的，组织协调的) _________.

František Bartoš, currently a Ph.D. candidate studying the research methods of psychology at the University of Amsterdam, became interested in this _________ four years ago. He couldn’t _________ enough volunteers to investigate it at first. But after he began his Ph.D. studies, he tried again, recruiting 47 volunteers from six countries. Multiple weekends of coin flipping later, including one 12-hour marathon _________, the team performed 350,757 tosses, breaking the previous record of 40,000.

With one side initially upward, the flipped coin landed with the same side facing _________ as before the toss 50.8 percent of the time. The large number of throws allows _________ to conclude that the nearly 1 percent bias isn’t a fluke (侥幸). “We can be quite sure there is a bias in coin flips after this data set,” Bartoš says.

The leading theory explaining the _________ advantage comes from a 2007 physics study by Stanford University statisticians, whose calculations predicted a same-side bias of 51 percent. From the moment a coin is launched into the air, its entire track — including whether it lands on heads or tails — can be calculated by the laws of __________. The researchers determined that airborne coins don’t turn around their symmetrical axis (对称轴); __________, they tend to move off-center, which causes them to spend a little more time high in the air with their initial “up” side on top.

For day-to-day decisions, coin tosses are as good as random because a 1 percent bias isn’t __________ with just a few coin flips, says statistician Ameli, who wasn’t involved in the new research. Still, the study’s conclusions should eliminate any lasting doubt regarding the coin flip’s slight bias. “This is great experiment-based evidence __________ the bias,” she says.

It isn’t difficult to prevent this bias from influencing your coin-toss matches; simply __________ the coin’s starting position before flipping it should do the trick. But if your friends are __________ the tiny bias, you may as well benefit from your slight advantage. After all, 51 percent odds beat a casino’s house advantage. “If you asked me to bet on a coin,” Bartoš says, “why wouldn’t I give myself a 1 percent bias?”

Over the past few weeks, many people around the world joined me in celebrating my career firsts — from winning my first Golden Globe to earning my first Oscar. While I am grateful for this unforgettable moment in my professional life, I want to     1    that global spotlight to an issue that is personal to me and that calls for the world’s attention.

My life changed eight years ago when one moment shook my     2    on the world.

It was April 25, 2015, and I was visiting local organizations. Suddenly, a deadly earthquake hit the country. I have never felt the type of fear and panic I felt that day, when the ground beneath shook so powerfully that I was not able to stand on my own feet.

I was fortunate to make through that day uninjured, but not     3    . As we made our way straight to the airport, I saw the ruins and destruction all around me. I couldn’t     4    the thought of how unfair it was that I have a home to go to, unlike the thousands of families whose entire lives were suddenly     5     to rubble (瓦砾).

Crises are not just moments of disaster: They     6     deep existing inequalities. Those living in poverty, especially women and girls, bear the brunt (首当其冲). In the immediately aftermath of a disaster, lack of sanitation (卫生系统), and health facilities     7     affects women. In my time as a goodwill ambassador for the United Nations Development Program, I have seen up close how women and girls are often the last to go back to school and to get basic services such as clean water and vaccines. They are also     8    the last to get jobs and loans.

To fully recover from a disaster and be prepared for the next one, the specific needs of women and girls must be factored into the humanitarian response.

This year we are halfway toward the 2030     9     to achieve what the United Nations calls Sustainable Development Goals, a blueprint for a shared global vision of a world without poverty and inequality. What I have learned through my work is that realizing these global goals will only be possible if we achieve true gender equality, everywhere, and in all aspects of life — especially in times of crises — and in     10    for next disaster.

8 . In the fog of uncertainty about how new technology will change the way we work, policymakers around the world have flocked to the same idea. No matter what the future brings, they say confidently, we will need to upskill the workforce in order to cope.

The view sounds reassuringly sensible. If computers are growing smarter, humans will need to learn to use them to humans’ advantage. Otherwise, they may run the risk of being replaced by computers.     1     .

Research published by the Social Mobility Commission shows that workers with degrees are over three times more likely to participate in training as adults than workers with no qualifications. That creates a virtuous circle for those who did well at school, and vicious circle for those who did not. If the robots are coming for both the accountants and the taxi drivers, you can bet the bean counters will be more able to retrain themselves out of danger.

    2     In the UK, the government introduced an “apprenticeship levy” a few years ago in an attempt to force employers to spend more on training. A surprising number have responded by sending their senior managers on “apprenticeships” at business schools.

It is no good criticizing employers for directing investments at their highly skilled workers. They are simply aiming for the highest return they can get. And, for some types of lower-paid work, it is not always true that technological progress requires more skills. The UK’s latest Employment and Skills Survey, which is performed every five years, suggests the use of literacy and numeracy skills at work has fallen since 2012, even as the use of computers has increased. The trouble is, when the computer makes your job easier one day, it might make it unnecessary the next. Many of those affected by automation will need to switch occupations, or even industries.     3    

It is time to revisit older ideas. The UK once had an energetic culture of night schools, for adults to attend after their day jobs. These institutions have been disappearing due to funding cuts. But a revival of night schools could be exactly what the 21st century needs.     4     They can also explore interests they never had a chance to nurture before.

It is still not clear whether the impact of new technology on the labour market will come in a trickle or aflood. But in an already unequal world, continuing to reserve all the lifeboats for the better-off would be a dangerous mistake.