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1 . 第二次世界大战期间,了解德军坦克的生产能力对盟军具有非常重要的战略意义.已知德军的每辆坦克上都有一个按生产顺序从1开始的连续编号.假设德军某月生产的坦克总数为N,随机缴获该月生产的n辆(
)坦克的编号为
,
,…,
,记
,即缴获坦克中的最大编号.现考虑用概率统计的方法利用缴获的坦克编号信息估计总数N.
甲同学根据样本均值估计总体均值的思想,用
估计总体的均值,因此
,得
,故可用
作为N的估计.
乙同学对此提出异议,认为这种方法可能出现
的无意义结果.例如,当
,
时,若
,
,
,则
,此时
.
(1)当
,
时,求条件概率
;
(2)为了避免甲同学方法的缺点,乙同学提出直接用M作为N的估计值.当
,
时,求随机变量M的分布列和均值
;
(3)丙同学认为估计值的均值应稳定于实际值,但直观上可以发现
与N存在明确的大小关系,因此乙同学的方法也存在缺陷.请判断
与N的大小关系,并给出证明.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8a5e1bb2637455d05313a112c5d745bc.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/096b1ece1dcd29c59a46a4b3e02cb548.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e5031a3a951c4a1d1c5e9f80a5e26513.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/93d0f3799612b81e85b87241ec8eee68.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2dcf3400c1490071b390aaac0ad0e102.png)
甲同学根据样本均值估计总体均值的思想,用
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/afb1694f46c040a6c976b2ef3eb3934b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/120e4da3fe22be28b3bb28f28fbcc862.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/92da09d5877d3dfe1a856b6353b81906.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7b7171e0c9c26b9f39a32d3a61d113cf.png)
乙同学对此提出异议,认为这种方法可能出现
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b8a1bd336033c63bc9c4f99ff2b482b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ebcc133d5b11b33a904875182d8c8261.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/be604061cf1591f7069472269d4c9719.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c50a1cf3b1a6f9a12605cbdf48e5de5c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/49bf4a59874878184dadeec74d1781d2.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/53722e8f43d44f9c611398ddaab151f3.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/afac93e0089a7ffca9a1f720e13b6878.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/de3874d2e8c49308151837161d7aa91c.png)
(1)当
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ebcc133d5b11b33a904875182d8c8261.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/be604061cf1591f7069472269d4c9719.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/1b9b7c101f267bbf233da7d3ac30e6f0.png)
(2)为了避免甲同学方法的缺点,乙同学提出直接用M作为N的估计值.当
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/270e5f2895909d5b6b6c612a8696565b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/fac3649308b528fd56545ba102dc42d5.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
(3)丙同学认为估计值的均值应稳定于实际值,但直观上可以发现
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
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2024-06-11更新
|
717次组卷
|
3卷引用:浙江省(杭州二中、绍兴一中、温州中学、金华一中、衢州二中)五校联考2024届高考数学模拟卷
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2 . 已知等比数列
的首项
,数列
前
项和记为
,前
项积记为
.
(1) 若
,求等比数列
的公比
;
(2) 在(1)的条件下,判断
与
的大小;并求
为何值时,
取得最大值;
(3) 在(1)的条件下,证明:若数列
中的任意相邻三项按从小到大排列,则总可以使其成等差数列;若所有这些等差数列的公差按从小到大的顺序依次记为
,则数列
为等比数列.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/63d471926f7b27322d90c82b9ce21d3d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/15e03cef5974ebfe9072f704c76f7f0b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/63d471926f7b27322d90c82b9ce21d3d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/08eb71ecf8d733b6932f4680874dbbf3.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f1ae9a3b0b7aeb1545b65d91aa371b3c.png)
(1) 若
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/eafa9c1774dfbd599d5871ae4efb585c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/63d471926f7b27322d90c82b9ce21d3d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9aa8a716a31b0f51b70fdf9bdb257909.png)
(2) 在(1)的条件下,判断
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/49c991692d281ea8c2fda692113809f2.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f99eb2934ccfb01ea9041053350190f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f1ae9a3b0b7aeb1545b65d91aa371b3c.png)
(3) 在(1)的条件下,证明:若数列
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/63d471926f7b27322d90c82b9ce21d3d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bde658ec4dd02510bde861c33d7d60a1.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8d813f3ca8db41a4db6c18eac30fef98.png)
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