名校
1 . 为应对新一代小型无人机武器,某研发部门开发了甲、乙两种不同的防御武器,现对两种武器的防御效果进行测试.每次测试都是由一种武器向目标无人机发动三次攻击,每次攻击击中目标与否相互独立,每次测试都会使用性能一样的全新无人机.对于甲种武器,每次攻击击中目标无人机的概率均为
,且击中一次目标无人机坠毁的概率为
,击中两次目标无人机必坠毁;对于乙种武器,每次攻击击中目标无人机的概率均为
,且击中一次目标无人机坠毁的概率为
,击中两次目标无人机坠毁的概率为
,击中三次目标无人机必坠毁.
(1)若
,分别使用甲、乙两种武器进行一次测试.
①求甲种武器使目标无人机坠毁的概率;
②记甲、乙两种武器使目标无人机坠毁的数量为
,求
的分布列与数学期望.
(2)若
,且
,试判断在一次测试中选用甲种武器还是乙种武器使得目标无人机坠毁的概率更大?并说明理由.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/44fed1be8b7e50f18cb90077d9fce8e4.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5e5db9fa0bc36e2308bd3eecd5e78351.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5f9f0aaaa2695dff4b08d7a52e4c905e.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/29be23f689eb01e57963495377501257.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/66577f4cb97c0d2a213ab1a9a02d1324.png)
(1)若
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/48f98df968dec4cb1b7e44cb47a5c216.png)
①求甲种武器使目标无人机坠毁的概率;
②记甲、乙两种武器使目标无人机坠毁的数量为
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
(2)若
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2c4f2beb272e7c3342233f5cb681ac24.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8b70d4a3fc3e01b5a6358cf4e57578e6.png)
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3卷引用:山东省菏泽第一中学人民路校区2024届高三下学期5月月考数学试题
名校
2 . 学校食堂每天中午都会提供
两种套餐供学生选择(学生只能选择其中的一种),经过统计分析发现:学生第一天选择
套餐概率为
,选择
套餐概率为
;而前一天选择了
套餐的学生第二天选择
套餐的概率为
,选择
套餐的概率为
;前一天选择
套餐的学生第二天选择
套餐的概率为
,选择
套餐的概率也是
;如此反复,记某同学第
天选择
套餐的概率为
,选择
套餐的概率为
;5个月(150天)后,记甲、乙、丙三位同学选择
套餐的人数为
,则下列说法中正确 的是( )
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/01c74a907dda6bb7d9d56d009d9df253.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bf31876698721a199c7c53c6b320aa86.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4dac452fbb5ef6dd653e7fbbef639484.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/56d266a04f3dc7483eddbc26c5e487db.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8b2a698891d42c70b597f0da4f215f09.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/d3cfeacc29e6a61c5b3b4e439c0a91df.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/63f5c583c98a1fd516c6ceaa60b55dec.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
A.![]() | B.![]() | C.![]() | D.![]() |
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4卷引用:广东省四会中学、广信中学2023-2024学年高二下学期第二次联考数学试题
广东省四会中学、广信中学2023-2024学年高二下学期第二次联考数学试题(已下线)【江苏专用】高二下学期期末模拟测试B卷(已下线)【讲】 专题三 复杂背景的概率计算问题(压轴大全)山东省烟台市牟平区第一中学2023-2024学年高二下学期6月限时练(月考)数学试题
2024·全国·模拟预测
3 . 甲、乙两名小朋友,每人手中各有3张龙年纪念卡片,其中甲手中的3张卡片为1张金色和2张银色,乙手中的3张卡片都是金色的,现在两人各从自己的卡片中随机取1张,去与对方交换,重复
次这样的操作,记甲手中银色纪念卡片
张,恰有2张银色纪念卡片的概率为
,恰有1张银色纪念卡片的概率为
.
(1)求
的值.
(2)问操作几次甲手中银色纪念卡片就可能首次出现0张,求首次出现这种情况的概率
.
(3)记
.
(i)证明数列
为等比数列,并求出
的通项公式.
(ii)求
的分布列及数学期望.(用
表示)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3282e5fde4ae53fcb1bb072a685304c9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3ffb021aa7d5a5c2f0691e337caad624.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/0ce603aa3abcb61750d2191aaa13dddc.png)
(1)求
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c7f66b7e38f44f8cd5d48b3aa24a20fc.png)
(2)问操作几次甲手中银色纪念卡片就可能首次出现0张,求首次出现这种情况的概率
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b1010846eeec6c9da29640f5aa3f8738.png)
(3)记
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/9131abf93295537bbc0c54a8c42e88e2.png)
(i)证明数列
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4c895d4ce5ce82ef9b311b9369b4de11.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/83cf38189d5cbf627d2b82ac0eb76006.png)
(ii)求
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3282e5fde4ae53fcb1bb072a685304c9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
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解题方法
4 . 现有甲、乙两个盒子中都有大小、形状、质地相同的2个红球和1个黑球.从两个盒子中各任取一个球交换,记为一次操作.重复进行
次操作后,记甲盒子中黑球个数为
,甲盒中恰有1个黑球的概率为
,恰有2个黑球的概率为
.
(1)求随机变量
的分布列;
(2)求数列
的通项公式;
(3)求证:
.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/6368fec0c2c25db7c29b014d60270e97.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/93d0f3799612b81e85b87241ec8eee68.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/96abfe2da27a63e6affb19a0c80236d9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/686ece75006ad358f23314dc8a246e11.png)
(1)求随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/096b1ece1dcd29c59a46a4b3e02cb548.png)
(2)求数列
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/83cf38189d5cbf627d2b82ac0eb76006.png)
(3)求证:
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e067aeb203bc5ce00c9dc47aa34cee5e.png)
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解题方法
5 . 在三维空间中,单位立方体的顶点坐标可用三维坐标
表示,其中
.而在
维空间中
,以单位立方体的顶点坐标可表示为
维坐标
,其中
.现有如下定义:在
维空间中,
,
两点的曼哈顿距离为![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/dd16a6bce68922e270867b93251aa45b.png)
(1)在3维单位立方体中任取两个不同顶点,试求所取两点的曼哈顿距离为1的概率;
(2)在
维单位立方体中任取两个不同顶点,记随机变量
为所取两点间的曼哈顿距离
(i)求出
的分布列与期望;
(ii)证明:随机变量
的方差小于
.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b4c2a29087dbd2e7635da13f7d288c1c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/489ac1b21a2d8f1cf07dc4aaca39a2bb.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/677fd74842cbce34aed7073cebbd9c58.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3183165f26bf33a2f3e7b6354937524e.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/778f11ad6b2139da11259859c06e868c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f173dd2b7c86ba2ec88c614ad334bb37.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/cdd16f86170db5efa19732f33aad277b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/dd16a6bce68922e270867b93251aa45b.png)
(1)在3维单位立方体中任取两个不同顶点,试求所取两点的曼哈顿距离为1的概率;
(2)在
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c4f27f84764f1cca89ce3d93fc1cf603.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
(i)求出
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
(ii)证明:随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8fe33278e4c69efacf81defce3045cec.png)
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6 . 在伯努利试验中,每次试验中事件
发生的概率为
(
称为成功的概率),重复该试验直到第一次成功时,进行的试验次数
的分布列为
,称随机变量
服从参数为
的几何分布,记作
.
(1)求证:
;
(2)设随机变量
表示试验直至成功与失败都发生时试验已进行的次数,求
的最小值;(参考公式:
)
(3)设随机变量
表示首次出现连续两次成功时所需的试验次数,求
.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b1010846eeec6c9da29640f5aa3f8738.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/90d4c864a0ceec1585b87dc6cb3bc579.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/0c43d1bfa0445f9e2a7e52b6c83802d1.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b1010846eeec6c9da29640f5aa3f8738.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bdc1b34228c7b27714c3b57ccb6b084b.png)
(1)求证:
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7e3531f48b0ff955cf96e9ac1479e419.png)
(2)设随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/54a829fdd8ec0f3b7ede883cf2c3e53b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/71701db4b413f2364dbcbd612fbc8a67.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/3a6cccc2739f1ced1f6c4cb0189154ef.png)
(3)设随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/0d8b9ad2fcfff3dd546c5fdbedfe6238.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c60e1ba1988005e5fbf117f35762ff53.png)
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7 . 甲、乙两名运动员进行乒乓球比赛,规定每局比赛胜者得1分,负者得0分,比赛一直进行到一方比另一方多两分为止,多得两分的一方赢得比赛.已知每局比赛中,甲获胜的概率为
,乙获胜的概率为
,
,且每局比赛结果相互独立.
①若
,则甲运动员恰好在第4局比赛后赢得比赛的概率为____________ ;
②若比赛最多进行5局,则比赛结束时比赛局数
的期望
的最大值为____________ .
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e170f206fdbbd834aad7580c727e2cc6.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5b5858ee1ce52b251816757257a11c29.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/92f92b7bb58207fc4cf8e6abb6f0fd5e.png)
①若
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c673f3acf403e7c300232d392e514261.png)
②若比赛最多进行5局,则比赛结束时比赛局数
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5bf3baba074e8aeb6f3ea117865bbd1b.png)
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解题方法
8 . 某校数学兴趣小组由水平相当的
位同学组成,他们的学号依次为
.辅导老师安排一个挑战数学填空题的活动,活动中有两个固定的题,同学们对这两个题轮流作答,每位同学在四分钟内答对第一题及四分钟内答对第二题的概率都为
,每个同学的答题过程都是相互独立的.挑战的具体规则如下:
①挑战的同学先做第一题,第一题做对才有机会做第二题;
②挑战按学号由小到大的顺序依次进行,第1号同学开始第1轮挑战;
③若第
号同学在四分钟内未答对第一题,则认为第
轮挑战失败,由第
号同学继续挑战:
④若第
号同学在四分钟内答对了第一题,满四分钟后,辅导老师安排该生答第二题,若该生在四分钟内又答对第二题,则认为挑战成功,挑战在第
轮结束;若该生在四分钟内未答对第二题,则也认为第
轮挑战失败,由第
号同学继续挑战;
⑤若挑战进行到了第
轮,则不管第
号同学答对多少题,下轮不再安排同学.
(1)令随机变量
表示
名挑战者在第
轮结束,求随机变量
的分布列;
(2)若把挑战规则①换成规则⑥:挑战的同学先做第一题,若有同学在四分钟内答对了第一题,以后挑战的同学不做第一题,直接从第二题开始作答.
令随机变量
表示
名挑战者在第
轮结束,求随机变量
的分布列.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/bd7b19b82b9c52bccc2d326c151962da.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f89eef3148f2d4d09379767b4af69132.png)
①挑战的同学先做第一题,第一题做对才有机会做第二题;
②挑战按学号由小到大的顺序依次进行,第1号同学开始第1轮挑战;
③若第
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/51a7f9f32fe58f69bef583517f354b98.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2c05b9832b09731a574d4a4adf7448de.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/12444d6e8d3b097a9d090e6ed06042e4.png)
④若第
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/51a7f9f32fe58f69bef583517f354b98.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2c05b9832b09731a574d4a4adf7448de.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2c05b9832b09731a574d4a4adf7448de.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/12444d6e8d3b097a9d090e6ed06042e4.png)
⑤若挑战进行到了第
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
(1)令随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/93d0f3799612b81e85b87241ec8eee68.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/07b3323042846456d9d1446cddaddc7a.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8ad5b0dc4aad791035b5c4ab87bd4702.png)
(2)若把挑战规则①换成规则⑥:挑战的同学先做第一题,若有同学在四分钟内答对了第一题,以后挑战的同学不做第一题,直接从第二题开始作答.
令随机变量
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/29c4cbb3a50014fa18fab2e0de87ee22.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b6a24198bd04c29321ae5dc5a28fe421.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/13c4f5f5dc27ad2038e23dde370f6f3c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/85b32db4258dd550584092cae2c84e88.png)
您最近一年使用:0次
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解题方法
9 . 如图,开车从
站到
站有3条路线.甲、乙、丙路线分别为![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4853b4705dee3de86e18a346ee3ae853.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8669a6aa7e782932422fe26986ff3dec.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/35ff324f42e4c0ebdc73afa6f3627a70.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9f4c4eb1dea2c12f31858ba9527c91.png)
.开车从
站到
站需要3分钟,从
站到
站需要2分钟,从
站到
站需要2分钟,从
站到
站需要,2.5分钟,从
站到
站需要
分钟,从
站到
站需要
分钟,从
站到
站需要
分钟,从
站到
站需要
分钟,受路上的红绿灯影响,
都是随机变量,且分布列如下
.
(1)若选择甲路线,开车从
站到
站的总时间为
分钟,求
的分布列;
(2)小张从这3条路线中选择1条,他在每站选择前进的方向时,都会等可能地选择其中一个方向,在他开车经过
站的前提下,若他开车从
站到
站的总时间少于5分钟的概率为0.4,求
的值;
(3)以各条路线开车需要的总时间的期望为依据,若三条路线中只有丙路线最快捷,求
的取值范围.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2a30f3a8b673cc28bd90c50cf1a35281.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/4853b4705dee3de86e18a346ee3ae853.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8669a6aa7e782932422fe26986ff3dec.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/35ff324f42e4c0ebdc73afa6f3627a70.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9f4c4eb1dea2c12f31858ba9527c91.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/35deedd73b1aa36be696a3674b87c0bc.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c5db41a1f31d6baee7c69990811edb9f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8455657dde27aabe6adb7b188e031c11.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a0ed1ec316bc54c37c4286c208f55667.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/895dc3dc3a6606ff487a4c4863e18509.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c5db41a1f31d6baee7c69990811edb9f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/895dc3dc3a6606ff487a4c4863e18509.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c5db41a1f31d6baee7c69990811edb9f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/87c7eb49a823f757461cd5260757b088.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7f9e8449aad35c5d840a3395ea86df6d.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/a0ed1ec316bc54c37c4286c208f55667.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5cd84a8f95166367063218ee03ffd5a7.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/895dc3dc3a6606ff487a4c4863e18509.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2a30f3a8b673cc28bd90c50cf1a35281.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8db31d2bbc9b044646fd026f239e7b62.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8455657dde27aabe6adb7b188e031c11.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2a30f3a8b673cc28bd90c50cf1a35281.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/0244fcb28c5a8fc66c4ba114162ee635.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/295fbfd4857081c1b7299a2247dae2f6.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/1a15534d805bcf37d4b8187def1cecd1.png)
2 | 2.5 | |
0.4 | 0.6 | |
1.5 | 2.5 | |
0.5 | 0.5 | |
2 | 3 | |
m | ||
2 | 3 | |
0.5 | 0.5 |
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/5963abe8f421bd99a2aaa94831a951e9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2a30f3a8b673cc28bd90c50cf1a35281.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/f022950e0faa45b617d497b01b5292b9.png)
(2)小张从这3条路线中选择1条,他在每站选择前进的方向时,都会等可能地选择其中一个方向,在他开车经过
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c5db41a1f31d6baee7c69990811edb9f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c5db41a1f31d6baee7c69990811edb9f.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2a30f3a8b673cc28bd90c50cf1a35281.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/294f5ba74cdf695fc9a8a8e52f421328.png)
(3)以各条路线开车需要的总时间的期望为依据,若三条路线中只有丙路线最快捷,求
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/294f5ba74cdf695fc9a8a8e52f421328.png)
您最近一年使用:0次
2024-06-12更新
|
249次组卷
|
2卷引用:2024届广东省江门市新会华侨中学等校高考二模数学试题
名校
10 . 第二次世界大战期间,了解德军坦克的生产能力对盟军具有非常重要的战略意义.已知德军的每辆坦克上都有一个按生产顺序从1开始的连续编号.假设德军某月生产的坦克总数为N,随机缴获该月生产的n辆(
)坦克的编号为
,
,…,
,记
,即缴获坦克中的最大编号.现考虑用概率统计的方法利用缴获的坦克编号信息估计总数N.
甲同学根据样本均值估计总体均值的思想,用
估计总体的均值,因此
,得
,故可用
作为N的估计.
乙同学对此提出异议,认为这种方法可能出现
的无意义结果.例如,当
,
时,若
,
,
,则
,此时
.
(1)当
,
时,求条件概率
;
(2)为了避免甲同学方法的缺点,乙同学提出直接用M作为N的估计值.当
,
时,求随机变量M的分布列和均值
;
(3)丙同学认为估计值的均值应稳定于实际值,但直观上可以发现
与N存在明确的大小关系,因此乙同学的方法也存在缺陷.请判断
与N的大小关系,并给出证明.
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/8a5e1bb2637455d05313a112c5d745bc.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/096b1ece1dcd29c59a46a4b3e02cb548.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/e5031a3a951c4a1d1c5e9f80a5e26513.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/93d0f3799612b81e85b87241ec8eee68.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/2dcf3400c1490071b390aaac0ad0e102.png)
甲同学根据样本均值估计总体均值的思想,用
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/afb1694f46c040a6c976b2ef3eb3934b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/120e4da3fe22be28b3bb28f28fbcc862.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/92da09d5877d3dfe1a856b6353b81906.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/7b7171e0c9c26b9f39a32d3a61d113cf.png)
乙同学对此提出异议,认为这种方法可能出现
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/b8a1bd336033c63bc9c4f99ff2b482b9.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ebcc133d5b11b33a904875182d8c8261.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/be604061cf1591f7069472269d4c9719.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/c50a1cf3b1a6f9a12605cbdf48e5de5c.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/49bf4a59874878184dadeec74d1781d2.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/53722e8f43d44f9c611398ddaab151f3.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/afac93e0089a7ffca9a1f720e13b6878.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/de3874d2e8c49308151837161d7aa91c.png)
(1)当
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/ebcc133d5b11b33a904875182d8c8261.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/be604061cf1591f7069472269d4c9719.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/1b9b7c101f267bbf233da7d3ac30e6f0.png)
(2)为了避免甲同学方法的缺点,乙同学提出直接用M作为N的估计值.当
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/270e5f2895909d5b6b6c612a8696565b.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/fac3649308b528fd56545ba102dc42d5.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
(3)丙同学认为估计值的均值应稳定于实际值,但直观上可以发现
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
![](https://staticzujuan.xkw.com/quesimg/Upload/formula/348388b2590255369527f86fd6be63c3.png)
您最近一年使用:0次
2024-06-11更新
|
703次组卷
|
3卷引用:浙江省(杭州二中、绍兴一中、温州中学、金华一中、衢州二中)五校联考2024届高考数学模拟卷